Analysts set a price target for Bitcoin at $200,000 by Christmas

The short term momentum of Bitcoin has weakened after the market plummet on October 10. However, according to the on-chain data platform CryptoQuant, the long term structural demand for Bitcoin remains strong.

In a report released on Friday, CryptoQuant emphasized that it is too early to view the current market as the “end of the cycle.” Meanwhile, the research firm Tiger Research made an optimistic forecast, targeting a Bitcoin price of 200,000 USD in Q4, based on the continued net buying despite increased volatility.

Dolphin Group: An important indicator of structural demand

CryptoQuant experts believe that the coming weeks will be decisive, depending on whether the accumulation rate can be strongly driven. They describe the current market as the “final maturity stage” in the bullish cycle, not yet a clear endpoint.

The analysis focuses on the “whale” group – wallets holding between 100 BTC and 1,000 BTC, including ETF funds, businesses, and emerging large investors. Currently, this group holds approximately 5.16 million BTC, accounting for 26% of the total supply. History shows that the volatility in the holdings of the whale group is the most consistent indicator of Bitcoin's price trends.

Accumulation is the driving force of the bull market

In 2025, the dolphin group is the only force to increase the total balance compared to the same period last year, adding more than 681,000 BTC. In contrast, the remaining five groups all recorded a net decrease in their holdings.

Total Bitcoin balance change by address group (as of the end of 2025) | Source: CryptoQuantCryptoQuant confirms that the annual growth rate of the dolphin group asset remains positive, indicating that the bullish cycle still has a lot of potential. The total annual holdings of this group reached 9.07 million BTC, far exceeding the 365-day moving average of 730,000 BTC.

Short term challenges and important price levels

However, CryptoQuant warns that investors should not be complacent. The drop on October 10 has weakened short-term momentum, requiring a new accumulation phase for Bitcoin to test and surpass the $126,000 mark. To maintain the upward trend and establish new peaks, the monthly accumulation rate needs to be ramped up again.

CryptoQuant identifies the short term resistance level at 115,000 USD and the nearest support level at 100,000 USD, while noting that if the 100,000 USD mark is breached, the market could face a strong correction down to 75,000 USD.

The participation of organizations raises market expectations

Meanwhile, Tiger Research also released a short-term outlook report on the same day, with a more optimistic assessment. The company believes that the plummet on October 10 and subsequent liquidations are evidence that the market is transitioning from being led by individual investors to an institution-led model.

Unlike the deep decline at the end of 2021, which saw a wave of panic selling from retail investors, the recent adjustment has occurred at a more limited level. Tiger Research noted that institutions continue to buy in after the adjustment, and stronger participation from institutions during the current accumulation phase could create a solid foundation for the next bullish cycle.

The company forecasts that the Federal Reserve (Fed) continuing to cut interest rates will be a strong catalyst for the price increase in Q4, while raising the Bitcoin price target to 200,000 USD.

Mr. Giáo