Bitcoin's dominance index surged to over 60% as altcoins lost between 20% and 80% of their value.

After more than two months of continuous decline, Bitcoin is strongly reaffirming its dominance in the crypto market. The Bitcoin Dominance index has exceeded 60%, establishing its highest level since mid-2021.

In contrast to Bitcoin's breakout, the majority of altcoins have plummeted sharply, with less than 5% of the top 55 tokens recording performance that outperformed BTC. Institutional capital continues to prioritize Bitcoin, spreading a “risk-averse” sentiment across the crypto market and marking a distinct “Bitcoin season.”

Bitcoin strengthens its position as Altcoins lose ground

Data from Alphractal shows that only 3 out of the 55 major altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin in the past 60 days, while the rest recorded a decline of 20% to 80%. The altcoin market remains deep in the red, as reflected by the Altcoin Season Index fluctuating around the 25-29 level - a threshold characteristic of the “Bitcoin season.”

Performance of Altcoins against Bitcoin | Source: AlphractalOn the Bitcoin Dominance chart (BTC.D), this index has reached 60.74%, up from 59% at the end of September, setting a new high in over two years. This trend reflects a shift of capital away from risky assets back to Bitcoin. Many experts, such as Benjamin, predict that altcoins may continue to decline further by 30% against Bitcoin in the near future if the upward trend of BTC is maintained.

BTC.D Chart | Source: TradingViewSelling pressure in the altcoin market is increasing, especially after analyses indicate that the recovery structure following the October crash is gradually being broken. If the selling momentum continues, altcoins risk entering a deeper decline phase.

However, some traders still maintain an optimistic view on the prospect of the market in the next 3-6 months. Bitcoin remains above the 50-week EMA, liquidity is improving, and expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates in December are rising. According to one trader's assessment, altcoins will soon recover if BTC continues to hold its upward trend.

“Don't let fear take control, stay close to the market structure,” this trader emphasized.

At the current time, the market may witness the familiar liquidity rotation: capital flowing out of altcoins to reinforce Bitcoin's dominance. As long as BTC maintains its strength on the weekly timeframe and institutional capital continues to flow into the market, altcoins are unlikely to break out on their own. This context encourages a defensive strategy, prioritizing BTC and stablecoins over more speculative, high-risk assets.

Signs of recovery may appear, but not for everyone

Although the short-term outlook for altcoins compared to Bitcoin remains quite negative, some experts believe there is a possibility of a technical rebound in the near future. According to a user on X, the “Others vs BTC” chart just closed the monthly candle with a long lower wick – this pattern in the past has often signaled short-term bounces when the market “fills the gap” in the following sessions.

Others/BTC | Source: BitcoinsensusWhile Bitcoin dominates, any slowdown or correction of BTC could create conditions for some altcoins to selectively recover, paving the way for speculative capital to return to small-cap tokens.

In summary, although there is a possibility of short-term recovery, only some market segments will truly benefit, especially projects with a solid foundation and practical applications such as RWA, DeFi, or AI-related tokens. The market is becoming more selective, leaving fewer opportunities for altcoins that rely solely on narratives without substantial foundations. Therefore, by the end of 2025, there may not be a widespread “altseason,” but rather a selective mini-altseason where quality is prioritized over hype.

Mr. Teacher