The U.S. government shutdown puts a period; this Thursday's four major economic events could determine Bitcoin's $110,000 battle.

As of November 11, 2025, Bitcoin price stabilized above the $106,000 mark, with a single-day increase of over 4%. This was mainly driven by the U.S. Senate passing a budget bill to end the 40-day government shutdown. This week, the market will witness a series of key economic events, including speeches by Federal Reserve officials, initial jobless claims data, CPI consumer price index, and PPI producer price index. These factors collectively form critical variables influencing Bitcoin’s attempt to break through $110,000. Analysts point out that the resonance between macroeconomic data and policy signals could trigger a new directional shift in the cryptocurrency market.

Immediate Market Effects of the End of the Government Shutdown

The longest government shutdown in U.S. history, lasting 40 days, officially ended on November 10, when the Senate approved the budget bill with a 60-40 vote. This political breakthrough immediately triggered a chain reaction in the crypto market: Bitcoin rapidly surged from a low of $101,800 within six hours, reaching a high of $106,900, adding $128 billion in market capitalization for the day. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index jumped from 35 to 68, indicating a shift in market sentiment from panic to neutrality.

Negative effects accumulated during the shutdown are quickly dissipating. Data shows that during the 8 trading days of the shutdown, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced net outflows of $2.1 billion, but on the day the shutdown ended, there was a $730 million inflow. This reversal in capital flow validates that the removal of political uncertainty boosts risk assets. Notably, open interest in Bitcoin futures on the CME increased by 12%, indicating that institutional investors are rebalancing long positions.

The Critical Role of Federal Reserve Policy Signals

This week’s intensive speeches by Fed officials will serve as an important window for market interpretation of policy directions. Seven officials, including New York Fed President John Williams and Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller, will speak sequentially, with particular attention to statements regarding the restart of quantitative easing (QE). Fed Chair Powell previously indicated that “the balance sheet will soon expand,” which market participants interpret as a forward guidance for a new round of QE.

Historical data shows a significant positive correlation between Fed balance sheet expansion and Bitcoin prices. During the 2020-2021 QE cycles, each $1 trillion increase in assets corresponded to approximately a 220% rise in Bitcoin. If this week’s official statements further reinforce QE expectations, it could inject new liquidity expectations into the crypto market. Currently, federal funds rate futures show that traders’ probability of a rate cut in December has risen from 35% to 52%, and this shift in monetary policy could be a key catalyst for Bitcoin to break through resistance levels.

Sensitivity Analysis of Inflation and Employment Data

Thursday will see the release of October’s CPI data, which is among this week’s most closely watched economic indicators. Market consensus expects the CPI year-over-year rate to decline slightly from 3.0% in September to 2.8%. If actual data shows a lower figure, it could strengthen the case for the Fed to cut rates sooner. From a technical perspective, the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and CPI has recently turned negative (-0.3), indicating that during inflation decline phases, Bitcoin’s safe-haven attributes are transitioning toward risk-on behavior.

Initial jobless claims data also hold market influence. The data was paused during the government shutdown and will resume this week. If claims exceed 250,000, it may be viewed as a sign of economic slowdown, boosting Bitcoin’s safe-haven appeal. Meanwhile, PPI, as a leading indicator of CPI, tends to be more volatile. A significant miss below expectations could further confirm inflation easing, creating a favorable environment for risk assets.

Technical Analysis and Key Levels for Bitcoin Price

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is at a critical decision point. On the weekly chart, the price has successfully held above the $105,000 psychological support level, which also coincides with the 50-day moving average. On the upside, $110,000 presents a strong resistance, corresponding to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of October’s high. A breakout above this level could target the next resistance at $115,000.

Derivatives market data provide additional confirmation. The Bitcoin options put/call ratio has decreased from 0.85 to 0.62, indicating a significant easing of bearish sentiment. Futures funding rates have returned to neutral levels, suggesting leverage trading is becoming more rational. On-chain data shows that the number of addresses holding over 1,000 BTC increased by 17 this week, often a bullish sign indicating whale accumulation.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s attempt to break through $110,000 will unfold amid a confluence of macroeconomic factors. The end of the government shutdown provided initial momentum, while Fed policy expectations and inflation data will be decisive factors. In the context of traditional financial systems facing tests, Bitcoin continues to demonstrate its unique value as a macro hedge tool.