Cryptocurrency Market Weekly Review (11.03-11.09): Market Recovers from Panic, Altcoin Funds Active

Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

1. Overall Performance

2. Market Sentiment

Last week, the overall market sentiment experienced a transition from panic to recovery. From November 3rd to November 4th, the U.S. government shutdown caused a temporary tightening of liquidity, followed by the impact of the November 10th market plunge, and FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) from multiple DAT companies announcing token sales, which drove the market to continue declining. BTC dropped to a low of $98,950, a 11% decline over two days; ETH fell to $3,057, a 22% decline over two days. Afterwards, the market oscillated at low levels, and on November 9th, stimulated by news of the U.S. government reopening, it exited the bottom oscillation zone, and sentiment began to recover.

The chart below shows the Coinglass Fear & Greed Index, which remained in the fear zone for all 7 days last week; on November 8th, it hit the weekly low of 21, and has since recovered to 30, indicating market sentiment is warming.

Image: Last week, market sentiment gradually recovered from panic

Data Source: Coinglass

2. Macro Events

The key macro event last week was the U.S. government reopening. Currently, the Republican Party has secured 60 votes in the testing voting process. The next step is the formal voting, where a simple majority of 51 votes is needed to pass the bill. After passing, it will go to the House of Representatives for voting, and finally to the President’s desk for signing. The entire process is estimated to take about 2-5 days. Given that the GOP holds 53 seats in the Senate and faces little resistance in the House, some traders have already priced in the possibility of the U.S. government reopening this week. According to Polymarket, the probability of the U.S. government shutdown ending between November 12th and 15th has risen to 87%.

Image: The probability of ending the U.S. government shutdown between November 12th-15th is 87%

Data Source: Polymarket

3. Specific Data

Last week, BTC ETFs experienced outflows of $207 million, a 50% increase week-over-week; ETH ETFs saw outflows of $510 million, changing from inflow to outflow (from October 27th to October 31st, inflow was $16.4 million).

Currently, BTC exchange balances stand at 2.14 million BTC, unchanged week-over-week; ETH exchange balances are at 12.22 million ETH, down 1.1% week-over-week. Data as of October 31st shows stablecoin market cap at $265.6 billion, unchanged weekly.

Images:

• BTC ETF outflows of $207 million, up 50% week-over-week
• ETH ETF outflows of $510 million, changing from inflow to outflow
• BTC exchange balance unchanged
• ETH exchange balance down 1.1%
• Stablecoin market cap unchanged

Data Sources: Coinglass

2. Local Hotspots

3. Last week, active trading within exchanges was prominent, with the privacy sector centered around ZEC leading the market. ZEC gained 73% over the week without signs of fatigue, with Arthur Hayes continuously calling signals; the Near internet bridge + ZEC privacy pool outperformed Monero + Tornado.

Data Source: Rootdata

2. The explosive growth of AI computing has created strong demand for high-capacity, high-speed data storage. However, product capacity expansion takes time, leading to a significant supply-demand imbalance at this stage. Currently, raw material wafer prices are rising steadily; SanDisk (a Western Digital brand) increased NAND flash contract prices by 50%, and announced restrictions on supply growth until 2026, igniting market sentiment.

Related companies: Western Digital (WDC) recently surged 6x, STX up 5x, MU up 4x. Meanwhile, U.S. storage concepts are spreading into the crypto market, with FIL up 73% and AR up 46% over the week; FIL’s paid storage transaction volume last week reached 51%, surpassing miner self-mined data.

Data Source: Rootdata

3. Last week, exchanges saw continued speculation on small-cap tokens related to Alpha+ contracts, Binance Meme, POW sector, Grayscale concepts, privacy concepts, and Sui ecosystem. Meme coin activity was active, but rapid rotation persisted, with most projects unable to sustain momentum; midweek activity was high, but weekends were quiet, reflecting institutional trading styles.

Currently, concepts like Trump and privacy still attract high attention. After a week of silence, X402 shows signs of revival, with Ping transitioning to an X402 launch platform. On-chain, due to continuous BSC Meme inflows, wealth creation effects have diminished, while Solana Meme activity has increased.

Last week, meme coin contracts on exchanges remained low after October 11th, but trading volume began to recover to pre-October 11th levels, with price volatility of popular meme coins exceeding previous levels.

Data Source: Coinglass

On BSC, meme coin issuance sharply declined last week, cooling off quickly; on Solana, issuance increased, and capital activity resumed.

Data Source: Dune

4. Important News Last Week:

• The U.S. Senate advanced a temporary funding bill, with 60 votes supporting procedural voting;
• Ripple completed a $500 million financing round, led by Fortress and Citadel Securities;
• JPMorgan invested in Ethereum reserve leader Bitmine, with a holding market value of $102 million;
• U.S.-listed BTC treasury company Sequans confirmed the sale of 970 BTC to reduce debt;
• Tom Lee: The crash on October 11th and DeFi protocol collapses still require several weeks to digest;
• Arthur Hayes: Hidden quantitative easing may restart, potentially becoming a catalyst for the next Bitcoin bull run.

3. This Week’s Focus

4. Macro Events:

• November 12th: U.S. government shutdown is expected to end; past shutdowns caused delays in crypto regulation bills and ETF approvals, which may restart;
• November 12th: U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s speech;
• November 13th: U.S. October CPI data release;
• November 14th: U.S. October PPI data release.

2. Token Unlocks:

Related: This week, tokens such as APT, LINEA, and AVAX will experience large unlocks, totaling over $200 million.