Wintermute Weekly: The gap between Bitcoin and its historical highs still needs to be narrowed to see alt season.

According to Wintermute's 44th weekly market report released on November 10, 2025, the Crypto Assets market is entering a structural turning point. While Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) remain stable, the overall market has not fully regained vitality. Investors' risk appetite is rising, but major assets still need to lead the surge for alts to have a chance to strengthen.

Market sentiment is improving, but capital remains conservatively deployed.

This week, the overall market sentiment has improved, with risk assets attracting attention again, but there has not yet been a comprehensive influx of funds. The corrections of the past few weeks have come to an end, especially after the market's sharp decline in October, and investment positions have largely been reset. Although Crypto Assets remain the worst-performing category among cross-assets, the market atmosphere appears to be more stable.

President Trump proposed the idea of distributing a “stimulus check” of $2,000 per person in the form of tax rebates, which has been downplayed to tax incentives, but it still briefly sparked market expectations for fiscal support. Coupled with the easing risk of a government shutdown and weak macro data, it created a climate for risk recovery.

(Trump issued 2000 dollars, Bloomberg analysts: This train is unstoppable, continuing to go long is the way! )

“The 'Altcoin Season' Has Yet to Arrive: Historical Data Reveals the Dominance of Mainstream Coins”

According to Wintermute's past statistics, the closer Bitcoin is to its all-time high (ATH), the better the performance of alts. Currently, BTC is about 16% below its peak, and historical data shows that when BTC is only 10-20% away from ATH, its performance over the next 30 days is better than that of altcoins with a probability as high as 54%; if it falls back to within 10% of its peak, this figure can even reach 60%.

Conversely, when BTC is further away from its peak, funds tend to concentrate more on Bitcoin, while alts perform even more weakly.

With the end of QT, the easing of global interest rates, and the decline of SOFR rates, the macro environment is supporting the performance of risk assets, but the crypto market's response remains lagging. This reflects a decrease in speculative funds, weakened rotation, and a market that prefers mainstream assets.

However, regulatory and political news from the United States may bring new volatility and trend confirmation. Wintermute pointed out that once clear signals of regulatory openness and discussions on the domestic market restart emerge, some fundamentally supported blue-chip coins ( such as: HYPE, ENA, UNI) still have relative performance opportunities.

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