Official Trump (TRUMP) records short term bounce back signals after a prolonged fall, but this upward momentum may not be as solid as hoped. It is currently trading cautiously, as the rise of Bitcoin along with investor indifference has significantly limited the potential for a breakout.
Current market trends indicate that the year-end bounce back may only be a stepping stone for a deeper adjustment in Q4.
Official Trump and the influence from Bitcoin along with the broader market
Currently, the correlation between Official Trump and Bitcoin is quite weak, at -0.44. This means that the price of TRUMP often moves in the opposite direction to Bitcoin. This inverse relationship can be a significant challenge, especially in the context that Bitcoin often rises sharply in Q4.
The correlation between TRUMP and Bitcoin | Source: TradingViewIf Bitcoin maintains an upward trend in the last months of 2025, TRUMP may face selling pressure. This separation has previously helped TRUMP avoid deep falls of Bitcoin, but now it makes it vulnerable when the overall market rises while it does not keep up.
Quarterly Bitcoin performance | Source: CryptoRank## Outlook for TRUMP
The funding rate ( is reflecting a less optimistic macro outlook for TRUMP. Short positions dominate longer than buy contracts, indicating that skepticism is spreading among investors. This imbalance signals that investor confidence is waning and lacks clear direction – two key factors for the recovery process.
![OFFICIAL TRUMP )TRUMP( faces selling pressure despite signs of short term bounce back])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-85c72fa0c4d3779cd05bb755b614ce58.webp(Funding rate of TRUMP | Source: CoinglassIf there is no new commitment from long-term investors, any recovery efforts will lack sustainability. The lack of positive funding momentum indicates market caution and the risk of subsequent liquidations could increase downward volatility in the near future.
Opportunity for a reversal from TRUMP investors
Despite the weak macro outlook, the Chaikin Money Flow )CMF( indicator brings a glimmer of hope. Currently, this index is fluctuating near the -10.0 level, and history shows that this is often an accumulation zone, signaling the potential for a short term bounce back for TRUMP. At this level, buying pressure typically emerges before the market continues deeper corrections.
![OFFICIAL TRUMP )TRUMP( faces price fall pressure despite short-term bounce back signs])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-f7c191a4930656bb027d00b877e50979.webp(TRUMP's CMF index | Source: TradingViewWith a rising wedge pattern forming on the chart, TRUMP may record a short-term increase before facing new selling pressure. Although this pattern implies a brief bounce back, the overall bearish structure still prevails as the year 2025 gradually comes to an end.
Risk of price fall of TRUMP
Official Trump has been trading in a rising wedge pattern for the past two and a half weeks, hovering around the $7.86 mark. This chart pattern often warns of a bearish trend, indicating the possibility of a deeper correction.
If TRUMP is affected by negative factors, whether from investors or the reasons mentioned, the price may break the current support level. Weak buying power may prolong the downtrend, pushing the price down to the support area of $6.24, equivalent to a 19% fall.
![OFFICIAL TRUMP )TRUMP( faces pressure to fall despite short term bounce back signs])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-a68e9768c96e99c2c13341a71556192b.webp(TRUMP price analysis | Source: TradingViewConversely, if the CMF model proves effective, TRUMP could bounce up from the lower trend line, surpassing the $8.36 mark and testing the $9.00 resistance area. Although this move would negate the short term bearish outlook, the overall downward trend has not yet been reversed.
Mr. Giáo
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