5 charts to understand the current Bitcoin market situation: which stage are we in?

Author: Anthony Pompliano, Founder of Professional Capital Management

Compiled by: Golden Finance

The price of Bitcoin has plummeted by about 30% from the historical high of $126,000 reached on October 6. Since the beginning of this year, the price increase of Bitcoin has fallen into negative territory, with a gain of less than 1% over the past 12 months. Unsurprisingly, Bitcoin holders are very disappointed with the performance of this asset.

The public sentiment online is perhaps the most negative I can remember. However, anecdotes on the internet can be misleading. Platforms like Reddit or X may just be echo chambers. So, what does the data actually tell us?

The following five charts explain what is happening.

1. When Bitcoin was last at this price, global liquidity was $7 trillion lower than it is now.

First, Zerohedge's data shows that “when Bitcoin was last at this price, global liquidity was $7 trillion lower than it is now.”

This data point seriously contradicts previous expectations. Everyone, including myself, expected Bitcoin to narrow the gap between its price and global liquidity. Since this has not happened, many are questioning whether a fundamental change has occurred in the market as Wall Street begins to adopt this asset.

Regardless of the reason, the fact that Bitcoin has dropped 30% in the past month and a half is undeniable.

2. This is the “third 30% pullback” in this cycle of Bitcoin.

James van Straten explained that this is the “third 30% pullback” in this round of the Bitcoin cycle. With each pullback, the time from peak to trough has been shortening, accelerating the spread of market panic.

• August 2024 (Yen Arbitrage): 147 days
• April 2025: (Tariff) 77 days
• November 2025: 42 days

3. This callback has currently entered the oversold area.

CoinBureau data shows that “the daily RSI indicator for Bitcoin has dropped to 26, the lowest level since February, indicating that Bitcoin has entered an oversold zone.”

4, 95% of short-term holders are in a loss position.

Quinten Francois pointed out that a similar dynamic is occurring in the profit and loss supply of short-term holders. We see that over 95% of all tokens purchased in the last 155 days are currently in a state of loss.

This is obviously a way to quickly trigger market panic and undermine market sentiment. However, the market will not remain depressed forever. Eventually, the price of some asset will drop to a low enough level to attract investors again. Perhaps the price of Bitcoin will fall to $90,000 each, or even lower. I do not know the exact level at which prices will sustainably rebound.

5. Bitcoin whales are actively buying Bitcoin.

However, André Dragosch from Bitwise stated that Bitcoin whales (individuals holding more than 1,000 Bitcoins) have suddenly started to actively purchase Bitcoin at the current price levels.

Therefore, despite the surge in global liquidity, the price of Bitcoin has plummeted. Currently, Bitcoin is severely oversold, which has prompted Bitcoin whales to start buying again.

The fear and greed index remains below 20.

It is this volatility, chaos, and uncertainty that has shaped the various experiences of Bitcoin holders over the years.

Those who can remain calm when everyone else is going crazy have always achieved good results. However, it's easier said than done.