Long-Term Bitcoin Simulation Shows Timing Matters Less Than Investors Think

A new Bitcoin simulation indicates that long-term investors may be overestimating the importance of perfect timing. Researcher Sminston With built a detailed decade-long model showing how a hypothetical $100,000 investment today would perform under three scenarios: buying BTC at $94,000, buying 20% lower, or buying 20% higher. The model projected Bitcoin’s trajectory using the median power-law trend and assumed the investor withdrew 10% of their holdings annually for savings or spending.

Stress-Testing the Exit Strategy

The analysis also considered three exit points: selling at Bitcoin’s projected median price in 2035, selling 20% above it, or selling 20% below it. Even in the worst-case path — buying 20% above $94,000 and selling 20% under the projected median — the investor still achieved a 300% return on remaining holdings after a decade of withdrawals. Total savings reached 7.7 times the original capital.

Strong Outcomes Across All Entry Points

Investors who bought 20% below $94,000 saw total outcomes ranging from $1.15 million to $1.47 million depending on their exit. Entering at $94,000 produced end values between $924,000 and $1.18 million. According to the researcher, the conclusion is straightforward: while entry timing helps, Bitcoin’s long-term power-law trajectory is the primary growth driver. As With summarized, time “does the heavy lifting.”

Global Liquidity Strengthens the Long-Term Case

A macroeconomic perspective adds further support to the model’s optimism. The last time Bitcoin traded near its current range, global liquidity was approximately $7 trillion lower. Today it sits near $113 trillion, creating far more accommodative financial conditions. Higher liquidity historically boosts risk-asset demand by improving credit availability and investor appetite.

Bitcoin Shows Rare Undervaluation Against Liquidity Trends

Analysts are monitoring a widening disconnect between BTC and global liquidity. JV Finance reports that Bitcoin’s liquidity gap has stretched to –1.52 standard deviations, a level seldom seen during bull cycles. The metric compares Bitcoin’s market value to where it should be based on liquidity conditions; a deeply negative reading signals undervaluation rather than excess. This gap briefly hit –1.68σ on Nov. 17 — the most extreme level of undervaluation in the current cycle. While short-term downside remains possible, such deviations have historically increased the probability of long-term upside, with Bitcoin’s current liquidity-model fair value estimated near $170,000.