Analysis: The Fed's December rate cut vote is at a "stalemate," with Cook, under pressure from Trump, potentially becoming the key vote.

According to a report from Jin10, on November 22, institutional analyst Neil Irwin stated that there is a serious disagreement within the Fed on whether to cut interest rates next month. One possible outcome of the vote would create a stunning irony. If Chair Powell, Vice Chair Jefferson, and New York Fed's Williams decide to cut rates, they would certainly receive support from the three Trump-appointed governors on the committee. However, this would only give them 6 votes out of the 12 voting members. They need a seventh vote to achieve a majority. The four non-New York Fed presidents (Goolsbee, Collins, Musalem, and Schmidt) who have voting rights in this meeting have expressed reservations about a rate cut. In this case, Powell could turn to the two Biden-appointed governors to secure his majority vote. One of them is Barr, who now seems very concerned about inflation and advocates for caution. Therefore, he is likely to cast a “no” vote. This leaves only one more governor that Powell can seek the seventh vote from. This official is highly focused on the health of the labor market and has been tight-lipped about the next policy action. This governor, of course, is Cook. The Supreme Court is set to hear the case on January 21 regarding whether President Trump can dismiss her, a move Trump has been attempting since last fall.