Pi Coin needs a 4% boost to turn the recovery into a sustainable rally

Today, the price of Pi Coin dropped by about 1.5%, but its 7-day performance remains impressive with a 6.1% increase, outperforming most of the cryptocurrency market. This month, Pi Coin has surged by around 15%, while Bitcoin lost nearly 20%, showing a significant inverse correlation—a reason why it maintains green candles even when the overall market is weak.

However, Pi’s growth momentum has been stuck in a narrow range from $0.22 to $0.24 since November 17. The current technical chart reveals a “window” of about 4–5%, where Pi Coin could either break out or fall, depending on how several key signals play out in the coming sessions.

Large Buyers Still Support Bullish Momentum

Pi Coin is displaying a notable bullish signal: large wallets continue to support its upward momentum.

From November 19 to November 24, although the price formed lower highs, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) recorded higher highs. CMF reflects the flow of money from large wallets: it increases when big investors accumulate, and decreases when they pull out funds. This is a clear bullish divergence, indicating strong accumulation activity continues even as the price temporarily stalls.

PhPI/USDT daily analysis | Source: TradingView Currently, CMF remains above the trendline and the 0 level. As long as this indicator holds, support from large wallets remains intact, meaning Pi Coin’s recovery potential is sustained.

This is currently the only clearly bullish signal that Pi Coin possesses.

Weak Retail Investor Strength, and Lack of Volume Support?

Retail investors seem to lack sufficient momentum in the market.

From November 21 to November 24, Pi Coin’s price formed higher lows, but the Money Flow Index (MFI) created lower lows. MFI measures buying strength during price declines by combining price movement and volume. This is a bearish divergence, indicating that retail buying power is weakening.

PhPI/USDT daily analysis | Source: TradingView Trading volume also reinforces a similar risk warning. On-Balance Volume (OBV) has not yet broken above the key trendline near –1.97 billion, showing that new money has not flowed strongly into the market. Until OBV breaks this trendline, Pi Coin still lacks the strength for a strong breakout. Conversely, if OBV falls below the rising trendline, volume support could weaken further.

PhPI/USDT daily analysis | Source: TradingView In summary, large wallets continue to provide support, but retail buying strength remains weak. Trading volume is neutral, and will likely be the key indicator for Pi Coin’s next price move.

Pi Coin Price: 4% Breakout or 5% Drop

Pi Coin needs to break above $0.24 for the current recovery to become a real uptrend. This price level requires a 4.38% move, and if strong trading volume is sustained, Pi could target $0.26 and even $0.29.

However, the risk of a price drop is also looming. A break below $0.22 will open the next support at $0.21, corresponding to a 5.49% decline, which aligns with the bearish divergences seen in MFI and the currently neutral OBV.

PhPI/USDT daily analysis | Source: TradingView Currently, Pi Coin stands at a “crossroads” where both bullish and bearish scenarios are nearly balanced:

A clear breakout above $0.24 will confirm market strength, while a drop below $0.22 will confirm weakness. In either direction, Pi Coin’s price range is approaching a key breakout level in the near future.

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