Trading Moment: Bitcoin rebound faces the test of the dense supply zone between $93,000 and $96,000.

Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

On November 27, the Thanksgiving holiday caused the US markets to close, resulting in flat movements in US stock index futures. Crude oil rebounded due to OPEC+ continuing its pause on production increases, but the outlook for Russia-Ukraine negotiations triggered a brief drop during trading. Spot gold was boosted by expectations of a Fed rate cut in December, briefly surpassing $4190. Institutions such as Wells Fargo Investment Institute analyze that the Fed's potential dovish shift, a weaker dollar, and changes in investment logic for popular sectors like AI may create favorable conditions for alternative assets like gold. Looking ahead, although there are concerns about an economic slowdown, the expectations of a policy shift also bring potential opportunities for risk assets, as global investors closely watch the Fed's next moves and the potential market reshaping that may ensue.

As November comes to an end, the price of Bitcoin has risen to nearly $92,000 after experiencing fluctuations. Several analysts have pointed out that this rebound is mainly driven by short-covering rather than strong spot buying support. For instance, KillaXBT has begun to position short at $91,400, planning to add to the position at $93,100, with a stop-loss set at $95,000. They warn that if the closing price cannot break through $108,000 in the next four weeks, it will confirm a bear market, with a target price that could drop to $60,000. Additionally, data from Glassnode shows that the Bitcoin market structure remains fragile, with the short-term holder cost line (around $104,600) becoming a key resistance level, and there are dense supply areas in the range of $93,000 to $96,000 and $100,000 to $108,000. If liquidity does not improve, the price of Bitcoin may further dip towards the 'real market average' around $81,000. The key support level must remain solid above the $84,000 cost cluster, which involves about 400,000 BTC. Analyst Ali views $84,570 as key support, with $112,340 as the upper limit, while also reminding that a bear market phase could lead to a 70% decline.

Despite facing resistance, bullish views also exist. Veteran trader Alessio Rastani believes that historical data shows a 75% probability of a short-term rise given the current pattern. Analysts like Michaël van de Poppe and Daan Crypto Trades are focusing on the liquidity accumulation zone between $97,000 and $98,000, suggesting that if the resistance around $93,000 can be broken, the price may advance towards $100,000. Man of Bitcoin also pointed out that if it can hold above $91,521, it is expected to test $96,897. Overall, the market is waiting for clearer signals, needing to see sustained spot demand and increased buying power to confirm a structural recovery in the trend.

On the Ethereum front, although the price rebounded 15% from a low of $2,623 and briefly stood above $3,000, on-chain and derivative data indicate that large investors' bullish sentiment has not fully recovered, making it more difficult for prices to challenge $4,000. Currently, the TVL of the Ethereum network has declined from nearly $100 billion to $72.3 billion, and network fees have dropped by 13% over the past week. The long-short ratio of top traders on OKX also shows a leaning towards bearish positions. Analysts have differing views on this: Scient believes ETH's structure is stronger than Bitcoin's, and if it can hold the $2,800 support, it is expected to challenge $3,390; while Lab Trading's analyst Ken warns that unless it can effectively hold above $3,000, it may dip to $2,600. Meanwhile, Kingpin Crypto anticipates a “Santa Claus rally for Ethereum” in December, targeting the $3,300 range. Daan Crypto Trades suggests that investors pay attention to the fluctuations between $2,600 and $3,000, with a breakout above $3,000 potentially pushing up to $3,300 to $3,400, while a drop below $2,600 could see a decline to the low of $2,000. Additionally, Simon Kim, founder of the venture capital firm Hashed, recently launched a real-time Ethereum valuation dashboard, which estimates Ethereum's fair value at $4,747.4, approximately 56.9% undervalued compared to the current price of $3,022.3.

In terms of market dynamics, the hacking incident that occurred at the South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Upbit on November 27 has become a recent focal point. This attack resulted in the theft of approximately 54 billion Korean won (about 36.81 million USD) in assets related to the Solana network, involving various tokens such as SOL, JUP, PYTH, and RENDER. South Korean authorities highly suspect that this incident was carried out by the North Korean hacking organization Lazarus Group, which is also believed to be related to the Ethereum theft case at Upbit six years ago. Following the incident, the prices of some affected low-market-cap Solana ecosystem tokens on the Upbit platform surged dramatically, with ORCA and MET2 rising nearly 100%. Upbit has currently suspended all deposit and withdrawal services, transferred assets to cold wallets, and promised to fully compensate users for their losses.

2. Key Data (as of November 26, 13:00 HKT)

(Data sources: CoinAnk, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $91,318 (Year-to-date -2.43%), Daily spot trading volume $51.63 billion
• Ethereum: $3010 (Year-to-date -9.82%), daily spot trading volume is $14.54 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 25 (Fear)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1.02 sat/vB, ETH: 0.067 Gwei
• Market Share: BTC 58.5%, ETH 11.5%
• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: ORCA, XRP, BTC, MET2, TRUST
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 49.37% / 50.63%
• Sector Rise and Fall: Meme sector decreased by 2.78%, L1 sector decreased by 1.87%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 76,060 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $123 million, including $23.42 million in BTC liquidations, $20.13 million in ZEC liquidations, and $15.09 million in ETH liquidations.

3. ETF Inflows (As of November 27)

• Bitcoin ETF: Thanksgiving Holiday
• Ethereum ETF: Thanksgiving Holiday
• Solana ETF: Thanksgiving Holiday

4. Today's Outlook

• The Huaxia Hong Kong Dollar Digital Currency Fund will be listed and traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on November 28.
• Binance will remove the BMT/FDUSD, GMT/BTC, ME/BTC, and TOWNS/FDUSD spot trading pairs on November 28.
• Binance will delist PONKE, SWELL, and QUICK U perpetual contracts.
• The ETH Strategy will launch a 2-month STRAT linear unlocking on November 29, and a lending product will be introduced.
• Binance Alpha will launch GaiAi (GAIX) on November 29.
• Hyperliquid will unlock $308 million HYPE for the first time on November 29, accounting for 2.66% of the circulating supply.
• Sentient airdrop registration is now open, confirmation of eligibility ends at midnight on November 30.
• Jupiter(JUP) will unlock approximately 53.47 million tokens at 12:00 PM Beijing time on November 28, accounting for 0.76% of the total supply, worth approximately $12.5 million.
• Sahara AI(SAHARA) will unlock approximately 133 million tokens on November 27 at 8 AM, accounting for 1.33% of the total supply, valued at approximately 10.4 million US dollars;

Top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap with the largest decline today: MemeCore down 21.4%, Kaspa down 8.5%, Dash down 7.9%, SPX6900 down 7.5%, Zcash down 7.3%.

5. Hot News

• Animoca executives: Plan to expand business focus to stablecoins, AI, and DePIN fields by 2026.
• MegaETH: All funds raised through the pre-deposit bridge will be refunded, and a new smart contract is being audited.
• Data: Over the past 30 days, the inflow of BTC whale funds to Binance reached $7.5 billion, the highest level in a year.
• The Wormhole Foundation announced the purchase of W tokens worth $5 million.
• Infinex will launch a token presale on Sonar, distributing 5% of INX tokens before the January TGE to raise 15 million USD.
• Tom Lee is suspected of no longer holding to his prediction that “the price of Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of the year.”
• SpaceX has transferred 1163 BTC to a new address, worth approximately $105 million.
• The IBIT holdings of the SIO fund under BlackRock have increased to 2.39 million, with a quarterly growth rate of approximately 14%.