Hotcoin Research | East Rising, West Advancing: Signals of a Reshaped Global Crypto Landscape at Year-End

Crypto Market Performance

Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $3.05 trillion. BTC dominance is 58.7%, at $1.79 trillion. Stablecoin market cap is $308.2 billion, up 0.85% over the past 7 days. Stablecoins have now shown positive growth for the second consecutive week, with USDT accounting for 60.2%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most declined while a few rose, including: BTC down 3% over 7 days, ETH down 4.38%, SOL down 4.03%, LUNC up 62.7%, CHEEMS up 11.15%.

This week, net outflow of US Bitcoin spot ETFs: $88.1 million; net outflow of US Ethereum spot ETFs: $65.6 million.

Market Forecast (Dec 8 - Dec 14):

The current RSI is 42.7 (neutral zone), Fear & Greed Index is 22 (lower than last week, generally in the fear zone), Altseason Index is 37 (neutral, unchanged from last week).

Market Sentiment: The market is at a critical window for structural recovery and trend confirmation. In recent weeks, after panic-driven declines, the market saw significant rebounds, mainly driven by improved macro liquidity expectations (surging Fed rate cut probabilities, end of quantitative tightening) and short covering after panic selling. However, whether the rebound can turn into a sustained trend still requires confirmation by breaking through key price levels.

Based on the latest technical analysis, Bitcoin and Ethereum have broken below critical “bull-bear boundaries,” and the short to mid-term technical outlook has shifted from bullish to neutral or slightly bearish. To resume the uptrend, the market must first reclaim the following key levels:

BTC core range: $90,000-95,000

ETH core range: $3,000-3,500

SOL core range: $130-150

Risks: Watch for the Fed’s announcement on December 10. Market expectations for a rate cut (currently probability is as high as 82.8%) are the main driving force recently; any unmet expectations may trigger sharp volatility. Beware of “fragile rallies”: if prices rise but volume does not expand significantly, be cautious about pullback risk.

Stay Informed

Weekly Major Events Recap

1. Dec 1: According to Bloomberg, prediction market platform Kalshi faces a class-action lawsuit, accused of operating sports betting without any state gambling license and making misleading statements to users regarding market-making activities;

2. Dec 1: White House crypto and AI chief David Sacks publicly questioned the New York Times’ investigation into his conduct as the White House AI and crypto head, arguing the paper spent months pursuing unsubstantiated allegations;

3. Dec 5: According to lookonchain monitoring, Circle minted another 500 million USDC an hour ago. Over the past month, Circle has minted a total of 10 billion USDC;

4. Dec 3: US President Trump stated during a cabinet meeting last night that he may announce his pick for Fed chair early next year, adding that Treasury Secretary Besant does not want the job. He has evaluated 10 Fed candidates and only one remains. Later, introducing Hassett at a White House meeting, Trump indicated the potential Fed chair is present. In addition, Trump reiterated criticism of Powell, saying even JPMorgan CEO Dimon believes Powell should lower rates;

5. Dec 4: The world’s second-largest asset manager Vanguard reversed its stance; Bank of America recommends interested investors allocate 1%-4% to digital assets;

6. Dec 4: According to Cointelegraph, Meme coin PEPE’s official website was attacked and is currently redirecting users to malicious links;

7. Dec 5: Meta is considering cutting the metaverse department’s budget by 30% next year; stock closed up 3.4%;

8. Dec 5: Today, the National Internet Finance Association of China, together with multiple departments, issued the latest risk warning on illegal activities involving virtual currencies. This is three years since the 2022 crypto risk warning. Over the past five years, the association has issued four major announcements at key market speculation moments;

9. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for the first time allowed already-listed spot crypto products to trade on its registered futures exchanges, marking a major breakthrough in the US regulatory framework. Bitnomial plans to launch a CFTC-regulated leveraged retail spot platform on December 8;

10. Dec 4: Ethereum mainnet successfully activated its 17th major upgrade “Fusaka,” marking Ethereum’s entry into an accelerated development pace with “two hard forks per year”;

11. Binance founder CZ stated his future focus will shift to the BNB Chain ecosystem and serving as a crypto advisor to multiple governments; co-founder He Yi has officially become Binance co-CEO.

Macroeconomics

1. Dec 3: US November ADP employment change: -32,000, expected 10,000, previous 42,000;

2. Dec 4: US initial jobless claims for the week ending Nov 29: 191,000, a new low since the week ending Sep 24, 2022. Expected 220,000, previous revised from 216,000 to 218,000;

3. Dec 5: US September core PCE price index YoY at 2.8%, expected 2.9%, previous 2.9%;

4. Dec 6: According to the Fed Rate Monitor, the probability of a 25bps rate cut in December is 82.8%.

ETF

According to data, from Dec 1 to Dec 5, US Bitcoin spot ETF net outflow: $88.1 million; as of Dec 5, GBTC (Grayscale) total outflow: $25.001 billion, current holdings: $14.964 billion, IBIT (BlackRock) holdings: $69.453 billion. The total market cap of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $117.67 billion.

US Ethereum spot ETF net outflow: $65.6 million.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Events

1. Bitcoin MENA will be held at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC) from Dec 8 to 9;

2. Solana Breakpoint 2025 will be held in Abu Dhabi from Dec 11 to 13.

Project Developments

1. Chainlink: Rewards Season 1 allocation period ends at 22:00 on Dec 9. Participants must allocate Cubes during the allocation period to claim tokens during the claim period (starting Dec 16);

2. Aster’s S4 buyback will start on Dec 10. Of the fees generated in S4, 60-90% will be used for token buyback.

Key Events

1. Dec 11, 3:00: US will announce Fed rate decision as of Dec 10 (upper limit);

2. Dec 11, 21:30: US will announce initial jobless claims for the week ending Dec 6 (10,000 people);

3. Dec 12, 1:00: Fed will release data on US household financial health from the Q3 2025 Flow of Funds Report.

Token Unlocks

1. Movement (MOVE) will unlock 161 million tokens on Dec 9, worth about $7.43 million, accounting for 1.62% of circulating supply;

2. CARV (CARV) will unlock 16.11 million tokens on Dec 10, worth about $2.16 million, accounting for 1.61% of circulating supply;

3. Linea (LINEA) will unlock 1.44 billion tokens on Dec 10, worth about $12.3 million, accounting for 2% of circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is committed to turning professional analysis into your practical weapon. Through “Weekly Insights” and “In-Depth Reports,” we analyze market trends for you; with our exclusive column “Hotcoin Selection” (AI + expert dual screening), we help you identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers also interact with you via livestreams to interpret hot topics and forecast trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors ride out cycles and seize Web3 value opportunities.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing carries inherent risks. We strongly advise investors to fully understand these risks and invest under a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of your funds.

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