Bitcoin 'rallies are for selling': Top 3 arguments from the short side

Bitcoin (BTC) has increased by 14.50% from its recent bottom of $80,600, approaching the $93,000 mark again as traders debate between the potential for a strong buyer recovery and the risk of the onset of a bear market.

Bitcoin price chart | Source: Coinphoton Amid cautious views, CryptoBirb believes the current and upcoming Bitcoin rallies are mainly opportunities to take profits rather than signals for a new growth cycle targeting year-end goals like $150,000 or higher.

The “bear flag” pattern forecasts a potential 16% BTC correction

Multiple technical analyses have identified the “bear flag” pattern—a structure commonly found in downtrends and often leading to further sharp declines. During Bitcoin’s recovery, experts such as Mister Crypto, Celeb Franzen, and others have highlighted this pattern, warning that the BTC price could easily drop back to the $80,000 region.

Further analysis shows that the technical downside target of the bear flag pattern in December is around $77,100, determined by adding the height of the previous downtrend to the potential breakout point near the $88,000 support area.

BTC/USDT daily chart | Source: TradingView If this scenario plays out, Bitcoin’s price would drop about 16% from the current level.

Bitcoin at risk of dropping to $40,000 if the 2021 pattern repeats

According to expert Leshka, Bitcoin’s current movement structure almost mirrors the 2021 cycle, with a double-top pattern, a sharp drop to the cycle support zone, followed by a fake recovery that forms a bull trap before a real deep decline occurs.

In 2021, this pattern led to a prolonged crash, halving BTC’s value. Data for 2025 also shows a similar scenario, with the price still fluctuating in the support zone before the risk of a breakdown. Leshka warns that if this pattern repeats, Bitcoin could return to the $40,000 region in early 2026, representing a drop of over 50% from the current level.

Expert Alex Wacy shares this view, citing Bitcoin’s retreat from the long-term uptrend resistance line—a development often leading to deep corrections of up to 70%.

Market sentiment: Fear looms according to Google Trends

Last week, Google search volume for the phrase “Bitcoin bear market” over a 5-year period hit an all-time high, according to AndrewBTC’s analysis on X. He noted that panic sentiment is sweeping through the Bitcoin investor community.

History shows these waves of concern often appear right before major market sell-offs. For example, in May 2021, when BTC was around $60,000 before a more than 50% correction, or in June 2022, when Bitcoin slid to the cycle bottom around $15,450.

The spike in “Bitcoin bear market” search trends in August also coincided with a BTC price drop.

AndrewBTC warns that Bitcoin could recover to the $97,000 region in the near future, but this would only be a bull trap to attract new capital before the market enters a deep downtrend cycle. He emphasized:

“Most will think the bull trend has returned, but in reality, it hasn’t—the bear market will begin.”

Mr. Giao