How will today’s expiration of $4.5 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts affect prices?

Nearly 4.5 billion USD in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options will expire at 16:00 today (12/12/2025) Vietnam time.

This options expiration batch occurs against the backdrop of cautious market sentiment, as investors face declining year-end liquidity and recent macroeconomic fluctuations.

Market prepares for $4.5 billion Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiration after Fed rate cut decision

Bitcoin is currently recorded at $92,249, with the “max pain” threshold at $90,000. The total open options contracts reached 39,826, including 18,974 call contracts and 20,852 put contracts, with a put/call ratio of 1.10 and a notional value of approximately $3.7 billion.

Bitcoin options nearing expiration | Source: DeribitAccording to Deribit, the balance between call and put options indicates traders expect the expiration to proceed stably, following recent sideways price movement.

“Behavior centered around the $90,000 level reflects market sentiment waiting for new catalysts, rather than leaning toward a clear trend,” Deribit stated.

For Ethereum, the current trading price is $3,242, with the “max pain” point at $3,100. The total open options contracts amount to 237,879, including 107,282 call contracts and 130,597 put contracts, with a put/call ratio of 1.22 and an approximate notional value of $770 million.

Ethereum options nearing expiration | Source: DeribitDeribit’s experts note that although ETH’s position has shifted toward a more balanced state, the concentration of call contracts above $3,400 indicates investors still expect significant price volatility in the near future.

Macro environment supports the market, but caution remains dominant

Greeks.live analysts comment that the recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the restart of the short-term treasury bond repurchase program worth $40 billion helped support market liquidity. However, overall sentiment remains quite cautious.

“Calling this a restart of QE or the beginning of a new bullish cycle is premature,” they emphasized, noting that late-year periods tend to experience the weakest liquidity conditions in the crypto markets.

More than half of the open options contracts are concentrated around the expiration date of 12/26, with implied volatility continuing to trend downward. This indicates low short-term volatility expectations.

The options market still leans toward a bearish bias, with put contracts trading at higher prices than calls. This reflects a stable spot environment, prompting a return of covered-call strategies, while demand for downside protection remains high as the market has not fully recovered.

Greeks.live also recommends that, despite structural weaknesses, investors should remain vigilant for potential bullish catalysts, although the likelihood of strong volatility remains low.

Short-term risks and long-term outlook

Deribit also highlights some short-term pressures such as ETF outflows, MicroStrategy losing its favorable price level, and pressures from miners.

“Short-term risks certainly exist… We need a structural change,” said Mr. Sean McNulty, Head of Derivatives Trading for the APAC region at FalconX.

Despite facing short-term challenges, the long-term momentum for both BTC and ETH remains intact, suggesting this expiration is likely to proceed smoothly unless new catalysts emerge.

As the market prepares for the $4.5 billion options expiration, traders are focusing on maintaining balanced positions while closely monitoring macro liquidity conditions and specific crypto market factors to identify investment opportunities in the new year.

In the short term, investors should prepare for price volatility driven by this options expiration, which could impact the market towards the end of the week. However, the market is forecasted to stabilize as traders adapt to the new trading environment.

Mr. Giáo