Market Wrap: BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Hits Death Cross Amid Crypto Market Turbulence

• BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF triggers a bearish technical signal as its 50-day average slides below the 200-day, stirring fresh doubts while BTC trades near $91,800.
• U.S. Bitcoin ETFs shed $77.3 million, and Kalshi places government shutdown odds at 43%, amplifying macro stress alongside bank estimates of a 20–50% risk window.
• Charts hint at a long-awaited altcoin rotation, even as unrealized losses hit $350B; meanwhile, bipartisan lawmakers push for crypto access in 401(k)s, potentially unlocking major inflows.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) has formed its first-ever death cross, where the 50-day simple moving average crossed below the 200-day average. This technical indicator, visible on recent TradingView charts, often signals a shift to downward trends, raising concerns among investors as Bitcoin hovers around $91,792.

Bitcoin Spot ETF Outflows Continue

Yesterday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $77.3 million, according to data from SoSoValue. BlackRock’s IBIT bucked the trend by leading inflows, while Fidelity’s FBTC saw the largest outflows. Total assets under management for these ETFs now stand at $119.9 billion, reflecting the growing but volatile integration of crypto into traditional finance.

Adding to market jitters, prediction platform Kalshi has pegged the odds of a U.S. government shutdown on January 31, 2026, at 43%—its highest since last year’s crisis. The chart shows a sharp uptick in probability from mid-November.

ADVERTISEMENTAnalysts at Goldman Sachs estimate a 40-50% risk, while JPMorgan sees 20-40% chances of a funding lapse in early 2026. Both banks note that a brief shutdown might shave just 0.1-0.2% off weekly GDP, with most losses recoverable. But a prolonged one, fueled by debates over Affordable Care Act funding and spending, could inflict broader economic damage.

Altcoin Rotation Signals

On the altcoin front, charts from trader Merlin highlight a “rotation clock” ticking. The altcoin market cap versus Bitcoin shows a bullish retest after 1,100 days of consolidation, mirroring a similar pattern in Ethereum versus Bitcoin

Historical data suggests this setup preceded explosive altcoin rallies in past cycles, hinting at potential shifts away from Bitcoin dominance.

ADVERTISEMENTBTCUSDT Chart by TradingViewGlassnode data reveals unrealized losses across the crypto ecosystem, climbing to about $350 billion, with Bitcoin accounting for $85 billion. On-chain indicators suggest a decline in liquidity, setting the stage for increased volatility in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, options pricing for the $100,000 Bitcoin call expiring January 30 indicates a 70% implied probability that BTC will close at or below that level, per Black-Scholes models.

Meanwhile, in a push for mainstream adoption, a bipartisan group of House Financial Services Committee members, led by Chairmen Patrick McHenry and Maxine Waters, sent a letter to SEC Chair Paul Atkins urging immediate approval for Bitcoin and crypto in 401(k) plans.

Citing Executive Order 14330 from August, the letter emphasizes expanding access to alternative assets for retirement savings. With Americans holding $9 trillion in such accounts, this could open floodgates for crypto inflows.

Final Thoughts

As markets digest these developments, investors are bracing for uncertainty. While technical signals warn of corrections, policy shifts and cycle patterns offer glimmers of upside. The crypto landscape remains as unpredictable as ever.

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