Galaxy: Bitcoin has entered a new "mature" stage

Author: Galaxy; Translated by: Golden Finance

Bitcoin price has fallen below $100,000 for the first time since June.

Last week, the cryptocurrency market experienced a significant decline amid a stock market pullback and increasing macroeconomic pressures. Galaxy Research downgraded its year-end target for Bitcoin from $185,000 to $120,000, believing that Bitcoin has entered a new “mature phase,” characterized by institutional investors gradually absorbing funds, increased passive capital flows, and reduced volatility.

Last week, global risk appetite also fluctuated. Reports of layoffs and hiring freezes heightened concerns about an economic slowdown, leading to declines in the US stock market, with the S&P 500 down 1.1% and the Nasdaq down 1.9%.

Galaxy’s Perspective:

Last week, the crypto market took a heavy hit, and Bitcoin failed to hold the key psychological level of $100,000, while other cryptocurrencies performed even worse. Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap, over 70 have fallen more than 50% from their all-time highs.

Whale sell-offs have been a resistance for Bitcoin this year, but the collapse of the 10/11 leverage trade may have been the last straw. This event led to the bankruptcy of several market makers and funds, and caused a significant shrinkage of global order books.

Positive catalysts for Bitcoin include the expansion of ETF distribution channels and the influx of traditional wealth channels. Morgan Stanley advisors can finally recommend initial Bitcoin allocations to investors, and three of the four major custodians have announced plans to launch Bitcoin services. Additionally, the whale distribution phase will eventually end—early investors will have limited Bitcoin to sell, while the theoretical demand remains unlimited.

We remain optimistic about Bitcoin. Frankly, this is a sign of Bitcoin’s growth. The “mature era” may have ended the fantasy of “a hundredfold increase in a month,” but it also eliminated its fragility.

ETFs are now absorbing supply from the older generation of Bitcoin holders, and long-term whales are nearing exhaustion of their holdings. Meanwhile, major banks that once looked down on Bitcoin are now quietly building cryptocurrency trading divisions during weekends.

Speculators chasing the hype have shifted to AI stocks; true adults are accumulating the remaining scarce digital assets.

You could say it’s boring—but this boring, institutionalized, policy-sensitive Bitcoin is ultimately the one that will enter global reserve portfolios.