What Is the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle? 10x Research Says It Still Exists—But Halvings Are No Longer the Main Driver

As Bitcoin trades around $102,000 in mid-December 2025—well below its October peak of $126,080—debate continues over whether the famous “four-year cycle” tied to halvings has broken.

In a recent interview, Markus Thielen, Head of Research at 10x Research, argued that the cycle hasn’t disappeared; it has simply evolved. The core driver is no longer the halving event itself but broader macro liquidity conditions and cautious institutional behavior. With the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut cycle paused and liquidity still tight, Bitcoin lacks the fuel for a parabolic breakout, likely leading to extended range-bound trading rather than the explosive rallies seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021. For crypto investors tracking blockchain trends, wallet security, and Bitcoin price cycles in late 2025, this nuanced view offers critical context amid ongoing volatility.

What Exactly Is the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle?

The Bitcoin four-year cycle refers to the recurring pattern where BTC experiences major bull runs peaking roughly every four years—coinciding with halving events that reduce new supply issuance by 50%. Historically, peaks occurred in late 2013 (post-2012 halving), late 2017 (post-2016 halving), and late 2021 (post-2020 halving), followed by deep bear markets. This rhythm created the popular narrative that halvings alone trigger supercycles. However, Thielen emphasizes that while the broader four-year pattern persists—driven by adoption waves and supply dynamics—the direct causal link to halvings has weakened as the market matures.

• Historical Peaks: 2013 (~$1,200), 2017 (~$20,000), 2021 (~$69,000)—all roughly 18 months post-halving.
• Post-Halving Expectation: 2024 halving (April) should have sparked a similar run, yet momentum stalled.
• Cycle Still Intact: Long-term uptrend and multi-year phases remain, per Thielen’s analysis.
• Evolving Drivers: Shift from retail FOMO to institutional liquidity sensitivity.
• Current Phase: Early-to-mid bull, but lacking macro tailwinds for acceleration.

Why Has the Halving Lost Its Dominance as a Price Driver?

Thielen points out that Bitcoin’s market structure has fundamentally changed: institutions now dominate flows via ETFs, treasuries, and custodied holdings, replacing the retail-driven euphoria of prior cycles. In 2025, despite the Fed’s September rate cut, subsequent signals have been mixed—pausing cuts amid sticky inflation—leading to tighter overall liquidity. Institutions, with fiduciary duties and risk frameworks, enter positions more gradually than retail traders, slowing momentum and preventing the “escape velocity” needed for parabolic moves.

• Institutional Caution: Large players wait for clearer Fed dovishness before aggressive allocation.
• Liquidity Constraint: Global M2 growth slowed; crypto feels the ripple effects.
• No Retail Mania: Unlike 2021’s meme-driven surge, 2025 lacks widespread FOMO.
• ETF Inflows Moderated: Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw strong but not explosive buying post-halving.
• Macro Over Halving: Rate environment now overrides supply-shock narrative.

How Institutional Dominance Changes Bitcoin’s Price Behavior

With institutions holding the majority of accessible supply (via ETFs and corporate treasuries like MicroStrategy), Bitcoin reacts more like a macro asset—correlating with Nasdaq, gold, and rate expectations—than a purely speculative crypto play. Thielen notes that in past cycles, retail leverage and halving hype amplified gains quickly; today, professional managers deploy capital methodically, resulting in slower but potentially more sustainable trends once liquidity floods back.

• Slower Capital Deployment: Institutions build positions over months, not days.
• Higher Sensitivity to Rates: Lower yields historically boost risk assets like BTC.
• Reduced Volatility Extremes: Professional risk management tempers blow-off tops.
• Treasury Adoption: Companies adding BTC act as steady buyers, not momentum chasers.
• DeFi Parallel: Institutional caution mirrors slower leveraged flows in perpetual markets.

What Does This Mean for Bitcoin’s Price Action in Late 2025–2026?

According to Thielen, until liquidity meaningfully improves—via resumed Fed cuts or global easing—Bitcoin is likely to consolidate in a range rather than launch into the parabolic phase many expected post-halving. This sideways action could frustrate short-term traders but set up healthier long-term structure. Only when macro conditions align (clear dovish pivot) will the cycle’s next leg materialize.

• Expected Behavior: Range-bound trading with occasional tests of $90K–$110K.
• No Parabolic Yet: Lacks the continuous buying pressure of prior bull peaks.
• Catalysts to Watch: Fed minutes, CPI data, and ETF flow acceleration.
• Long-Term Bullish: Four-year cycle intact; just delayed by macro headwinds.
• Risk Management Tip: Focus on secure custody and dollar-cost averaging during consolidation.

Key Differences Between Past and Current Bitcoin Cycles

Emerging Trends in Bitcoin Cycle Analysis for 2026

As 2025 closes, analysts like Thielen increasingly frame Bitcoin through traditional macro lenses—tracking real yields, dollar strength, and central bank balance sheets—rather than halving countdowns alone. This maturation signals crypto’s integration with broader markets, potentially leading to more predictable but less extreme cycles. For blockchain users, it reinforces the importance of diversified strategies and robust wallet security amid prolonged ranges.

• Macro-First Frameworks: Rate cuts as primary catalyst over supply events.
• Institutional Metrics: ETF holdings, treasury accumulation as leading indicators.
• Cycle Extension: Potential for longer bulls with shallower drawdowns.
• Global Liquidity Watch: M2, central bank actions more relevant than ever.
• Educational Shift: Move from halving memes to liquidity cycle understanding.

In summary, 10x Research’s Markus Thielen reaffirms that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains alive in December 2025—but its rhythm now follows institutional capital and global liquidity rather than halving dates alone. With cautious professional buyers and tight monetary conditions, expect continued consolidation until clearer macro tailwinds emerge. For deeper insights, review 10x Research reports, track Fed policy updates, or explore resources on Bitcoin cycle history—always prioritizing secure, self-custody practices in your blockchain journey.