Glassnode: Is the Metaverse already cooled down? On-chain data tells you the answer

Source: Glassnode; Compilation: Wu Zhu, Golden Finance

This week, we introduce another exploration of CBD use cases—analyzing metaverse tokens. Despite price declines and diminishing hype, on-chain data indicates that major investors remain active, steadily accumulating and lowering their cost basis.

Does this signal a long-term bet on a metaverse revival? Let’s first review how to analyze and interpret CBD data, then apply this knowledge to the latest trends in the metaverse.

Understanding Cost Basis Distribution

Cost basis distribution (CBD) tracks the concentration of token supply based on holders’ average cost basis. By analyzing changes in supply distribution, we can identify investor behavior—whether they are accumulating, selling off, or reallocating their holdings.

How to interpret CBD heatmaps:

• Color intensity (Supply distribution)

Warm colors (red/yellow) indicate high supply concentration within a given price range, while cool colors (blue/green) indicate lower supply levels.

• Y-axis (Cost basis)

Each horizontal slice represents the price range where a portion of the supply last moved, showing how holders adjust their cost basis over time.

Tracking these changes helps us identify potential market turning points where accumulation or distribution trends may signal future price movements.

Metaverse Tokens: What Does Cost Basis Distribution Data Reveal?

In this analysis, we focus on metaverse tokens—The Sandbox (SAND), Decentraland (MANA), and Axie Infinity (AXS)—which were among the most prominent assets during the 2021 metaverse boom. While hype around virtual worlds has waned, our focus shifts from user activity to using cost basis distribution (CBD) data to examine investor behavior.

We are not evaluating adoption metrics or in-game activity but analyzing how token holders adjust their positions over time. Are they selling off, holding steady, or accumulating at lower prices? By tracking supply changes at different price levels, we gain insights into how investor sentiment evolves in the post-hype phase and whether accumulation trends hint at long-term confidence in these projects.

The Sandbox (SAND): Steady accumulation in a bear market

Despite price volatility, on-chain data shows ongoing accumulation. Committed holders are steadily increasing their positions, reinforcing their confidence in the project’s long-term potential.

Decentraland (MANA): Buying on dips

Supply concentration has significantly increased, reaching around $0.60, reflecting increased buying activity after price declines. This suggests investors view falling prices as buying opportunities rather than signs of further decline.

Axie Infinity (AXS): Long-term confidence remains strong

Despite a persistent downward trend, on-chain data shows a gradual increase in large positions. This pattern indicates that some investors remain confident in Axie Infinity’s future prospects.

Will the Metaverse Recover?

Speculative hype around the metaverse may have waned, but on-chain activity suggests otherwise. Continued accumulation of major metaverse tokens indicates many investors see these projects as undervalued opportunities rather than failures.

Does this lay the groundwork for a future recovery? While price trends remain uncertain, data shows that key market participants’ confidence remains robust—they are positioning accordingly.