Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin will break the four-year cycle in 2026 and reach a new all-time high

Gold Financial reports that on December 16th, Btwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that Bitwise will release its “Top 10 Predictions” for 2026 tomorrow, with three key predictions: 1. Bitcoin will break the four-year cycle and hit a new all-time high; 2. Bitcoin’s volatility will be lower than Nvidia; 3. The correlation between Bitcoin and stocks will decrease. Matt Hougan said that according to the four-year cycle theory, 2026 should be a year of correction. However, Bitwise believes this will not happen. The factors that have historically driven the four-year cycle—Bitcoin halving, interest rate cycles, and crypto leverage-driven booms and busts—have significantly weakened compared to previous cycles. As platforms like Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch begin to allocate to Bitcoin, the institutional capital influx into the crypto space since the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF in 2024 will accelerate in 2026. Meanwhile, as Wall Street and fintech companies start to seriously adopt cryptocurrencies, the sector will also begin to benefit from the positive regulatory policy shifts after the 2024 elections. It is expected that the combined effect of these factors will push Bitcoin to a new all-time high and sweep the four-year cycle into the dustbin of history.