Bitunix Analyst: Non-farm Payrolls Reveal Data Distortion and Amplify Policy Expectations, Crypto Market Focuses on "Direction over Numbers"

BlockBeats News, December 16 — The US November Non-Farm Payrolls report will be released today. The market generally expects only about 50,000 new jobs and forecasts the unemployment rate may rise to 4.4%–4.5%, indicating a generally weak tone. FOREX.com pointed out that any results below expectations could accelerate market pricing in the Federal Reserve’s next rate cut; Mitsubishi UFJ also warned that if both employment and unemployment rates worsen simultaneously, the dollar selling pressure could persist until the end of the year.

It is important to note that both this non-farm report and the upcoming CPI data are “incomplete data.” Due to the government shutdown, October’s unemployment rate was missing historically, parts of the CPI components could not be re-measured, and the household survey weights for November were forced to be adjusted. The official also acknowledged that short-term data variance is high.

This means that the credibility of a single number decreases, and the market will be more inclined to trade on “policy expectation” and “risk sentiment changes” rather than on precise employment growth figures.

From a crypto market perspective, weak non-farm data combined with distorted data has a dual impact on risk assets: on one hand, the earlier rate cut expectations are beneficial for liquidity prospects and provide medium-term support for assets like BTC; on the other hand, increased data uncertainty could trigger short-term sharp fluctuations in interest rates, the dollar, and the crypto markets, making leveraged positions more vulnerable to liquidation.

Bitunix analyst: During the “low credibility macro data” phase, the core market debate is not about whether the non-farm payrolls are good or bad, but whether they are enough to change the Federal Reserve’s policy narrative. The crypto market needs to be alert to liquidity cleansing and high-volatility conditions before and after the event, with a focus on whether capital is leveraging macro uncertainties to de-leverage and re-price.