Adam Back dismisses quantum computing panic: Bitcoin currently has no risk of collapse, and quantum threats remain a long-term issue

The recent discussions about quantum computing potentially causing a market crash in Bitcoin have reignited. In response, Blockstream CEO and renowned cryptographer Adam Back explicitly stated that the current level of quantum computing development is far from enough to threaten the Bitcoin network, let alone trigger a systemic collapse at the price level.

Adam Back refuted an extreme opinion article claiming that quantum computers could cause Bitcoin’s price to plummet from approximately $87,000 by 99%. Back pointed out that such a scenario is only possible if quantum computers can massively crack Bitcoin wallet private keys and attack the entire network consensus mechanism, which is still very far from reality.

Previously, Back publicly stated that truly stable, scalable quantum computers with practical attack capabilities may still take 20 to 40 years to emerge. Even so, the Bitcoin network is not unprepared. Blockstream’s research team has begun exploring quantum-safe upgrade solutions to proactively address potential future risks.

However, not all market participants are so optimistic. Charles Edwards, CEO of Capriole Investments, believes that the uncertainty surrounding quantum computing may be one of the reasons Bitcoin has underperformed gold this year. He advocates that the Bitcoin community should reach a consensus on “quantum resistance” upgrades by 2026 to eliminate potential hidden dangers in advance.

From a technical perspective, quantum computers differ from traditional computers, with their core being quantum bits (qubits). Currently, quantum computing still faces challenges such as complex manufacturing, difficulty in scaling, and high error rates. Even industry leaders like IBM have prototypes with about 1,000 qubits, while Google’s and Microsoft’s operational scales are lower and stability is insufficient. To crack Bitcoin’s existing cryptography, at least around 2,500 stable, continuously operable logical qubits are needed, which remains theoretical at this stage.

Additionally, quantum computing poses potential risks to tech giants and the financial system itself. Strategy founder Michael Saylor bluntly stated that Google and Microsoft cannot sell quantum computers capable of breaking modern cryptography, as doing so would threaten their own and the entire financial system.

In practical terms, some long-term Bitcoin holders have already begun actively enhancing security. Analyst Willy Woo observed that since 2024, the usage rate of SegWit addresses has been steadily increasing. Compared to Taproot addresses, SegWit can reduce the potential risk of “quantum remote attacks” without address reuse.

Overall, the impact of quantum computing on Bitcoin is more of a long-term planning issue rather than an imminent systemic risk.