Bitcoin drops 30% as whales accelerate accumulation; on-chain data signals divergence

As Bitcoin’s price retreats approximately 30% from the peak of around $126,200 and hovers near the critical support level of $85,000, concerns about a further decline to the $70,000 region are intensifying. However, on-chain data reveals a different, intriguing picture: institutional funds and high-net-worth investors are continuing to accumulate Bitcoin at the fastest rate in 13 years.

Glassnode data shows that medium-sized holders (often referred to as “Bitcoin sharks”) holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC have increased their total holdings from about 3.521 million to 3.575 million BTC over the past week, a net increase of approximately 54,000 BTC. This accumulation speed has reached a new high since 2012, reflecting a clear pattern of buying on dips.

Historical data indicates that similar phases of concentrated accumulation by medium-sized holders occurred in 2011 and 2012, followed by several-fold increases in Bitcoin price within a year. The recurrence of this on-chain fractal pattern is viewed by some market participants as an important long- to mid-term bullish signal.

However, short-term pressure remains significant. The main selling pressure currently comes from super-large whales holding over 10,000 BTC and long-term holders. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, pointed out that although institutional buying on the US’s largest compliant CEX platform has reached historical highs, it is offset by long-term holders selling at a pace unseen in years, making it difficult for the price to sustain an upward trend.

Meanwhile, technical signals also suggest caution. Veteran trader Peter Brandt noted that Bitcoin recently broke below a key parabolic support level. Historically, similar formations often lead to deeper corrections, and in extreme cases, may even trigger substantial downward moves.

Overall, Bitcoin is currently in a typical battle between bulls and bears: on one side, medium-sized institutions and high-net-worth funds are accelerating their accumulation; on the other side, long-term holders are continuously taking profits. Until selling pressure significantly eases, the market may remain highly volatile and oscillating in the short term, but on-chain accumulation behavior leaves room for future developments.