Blue Fox Notes | Sweeping 3.86 million ETH relentlessly, where does Tom Lee's confidence come from?

From Tom Lee’s multiple interviews, we can roughly see his long-term core logic on Ethereum:

1. Ethereum is the future financial infrastructure’s core settlement layer.

Ether not only serves as digital currency but also as the foundational infrastructure for building and operating DeFi, stablecoins, NFTs, on-chain markets, RWA, and more. Especially in RWA, this will be the biggest narrative in the future. Wall Street is bringing trillions of assets (bonds/stocks, etc.) onto Ethereum. As the dominant settlement layer, this will generate massive demand and drive up Ether’s value. Tokenization is not short-term speculation but a structural shift that will propel Ether into a bull market independent of Bitcoin.

2. Institutional adoption and ecosystem maturity.

Currently, around 4 million Bitcoin wallets hold over $10,000 worth of assets worldwide, while the number of similar stock/retirement accounts holding comparable amounts is about 900 million—over 200 times the gap. In comparison, crypto adoption is still in its early stages; Ethereum’s developer community is the strongest; Ethereum network operates the most stably.

Moreover, unlike Bitcoin, Ether has real utility, such as staking yields, DeFi, etc., making it more suitable for long-term institutional holding.

3. Non-consensus opportunities.

Tom Lee has always favored “non-consensus” investing (earning 100x on telecom stocks in the 90s when young). Currently, many OGs (early players) find crypto “boring” and are shifting to AI or stocks, but this is because they have matured, while the industry is still in its infancy—an influx of new investors is imminent.

4. Not just talk but action.

BitMine (BMNR) is the world’s largest Ether treasury company. Tom Lee is chairman. BitMine holds about 3.86 million Ether (about 3.2% of total supply), aiming for 5%. By December 2025, BitMine will continue to buy large amounts of Ether (despite price fluctuations) and has $1 billion in cash reserves + staking yields.

(Note: 3.2% is already quite a lot; 5% is a bit excessive.)

Tom Lee’s price predictions (this part is not to be taken too seriously, as price forecasts are divine matters):

• The “craziest” long-term target: if the ETH/BTC ratio returns to 0.25, Ether could reach $62,000 (extreme scenario based on a super cycle).
• A more realistic 2026 target: $7,000–$9,000 (2026), or even $20,000 (if tokenization explodes).
• He believes Ether will bottom out by late 2025/early 2026, with short-term volatility, but 2026 will be a “big year” for Layer 1 chains (especially Ether).

_ (The above content is authorized and reprinted with permission from partner Lanhu Notes)_

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