Citibank's latest forecast: Bitcoin may rise to $143,000 by 2026, as the influx of ETF funds proves difficult to resist.

Citigroup has set a target price of $143,000 for Bitcoin, betting on ETF liquidity and legislative catalysts, while also establishing a risk line at $70,000. (Previous summary: The largest options in Bitcoin history are about to expire! Glassnode: The market is still pricing in downside risk, and BTC's volatility may explode in the new year.) (Background information: No Bitcoin, no building! Modern Group headquarters received bomb threat email, suspect demands 13 BTC)

Citigroup released its latest research report on December 19, directly raising the target price for Bitcoin over the next 12 months to $143,000. The report was co-authored by strategists Alex Saunders, Dirk Willer, and Vinh Vo, and the timing coincides with Bitcoin's current price of about $88,000, equivalent to an additional 62% upside potential.

This prediction is mainly based on three things: whether Wall Street is willing to continue pouring funds into the spot ETF, whether Washington's “Clear Act” will be smoothly implemented, and whether the global sentiment towards “risk assets” can hold up.

ETF funds become the core driving force

According to CoinDesk, Citigroup's model predicts that there will be approximately $15 billion in net inflows into the cryptocurrency market through spot ETFs over the next year.

This money is not just for simply buying coins, but for placing Bitcoin in a standard asset allocation, which is equivalent to tying on-chain Liquidity and traditional financial Liquidity together.

The analysis report indicates that when the S&P 500 and Nasdaq maintain a rebound, the risk appetite of the Dow and technology sector will be reflected in Bitcoin through ETF. Observing the monthly correlation coefficient, the linkage between Bitcoin and US stocks continues to rise in the second half of 2025, meaning that this prediction is based on the connection of “if the stock market doesn't crash, Bitcoin won't die.”

The underlying logic of the target price of 143,000 USD is very simple: by leveraging 15 billion USD in funds through futures leverage and the multiplier effect of market maker positions, the total market value of Bitcoin is expected to rise to about one trillion USD. If the on-chain positions and circulation maintain the current rate, the unit price will approach the 140,000 USD range.

Regulatory certainty brings the second wave of adoption

The attitude of the U.S. government is another key factor. In the first year of the Trump administration, Congress prioritized the “Clarity Act,” which explicitly placed Bitcoin under the supervision of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Citigroup stated that the biggest issue troubling institutions in the past was not volatility, but compliance risk. Only when the legal positioning of Bitcoin stabilizes can asset management companies enter the market on a large scale.

The Citigroup report emphasizes:

The clarity of regulation is the core engine driving the second wave of adoption, which will eliminate the compliance concerns that have long plagued institutional investors.

For Wall Street, the disappearance of regulatory noise means that net capital can freely allocate Bitcoin positions through ETFs, custodial accounts, or “over-the-counter contracts.” The policy has shifted from resistance to support, forming the second highway that supports the target price of $143,000.

Citigroup is not just painting a rosy picture; the bear market path is also included in the report, indicating that if the global economy turns towards recession and liquidity dries up, Bitcoin is likely to drop in sync with risk assets, with the worst-case estimate plunging to $78,500.

The above is not investment advice.