Galaxy Digital: 2026 may be the most difficult year to predict for Bitcoin

Alex Thorn, Director of Research at Galaxy Digital, believes that 2026 could be one of the most unpredictable periods for Bitcoin, although the company still holds an optimistic long term view.

In a post on X on December 21, Thorn stated that next year will be “too chaotic to predict accurately,” due to the intertwining of macro instability, political risks, and uneven market dynamics in the crypto space. This perspective is based on a report from Galaxy Research on December 18 titled “26 Predictions about crypto, Bitcoin, DeFi, and AI for 2026”, outlining the firm's expectations for the market and the level of participation from major institutions.

At that time, Thorn stated that the crypto market in general had fallen deep into a bear phase, while Bitcoin had not yet been able to regain a sustainable upward momentum. He warned that as long as the price does not decisively surpass the range of 100,000–105,000 USD, the risk of a downward adjustment remains present.

What signals is the options market sending?

According to Thorn, the derivatives market is clearly reflecting this level of uncertainty. The pricing of Bitcoin options shows that traders are assigning almost equivalent probabilities to completely opposite price scenarios in 2026.

Specifically, the market assesses the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching around 70,000 USD or 130,000 USD by mid-2026 as equivalent, and by the end of the year, the forecast range is even wider, from about 50,000 USD to 250,000 USD. The use of options by institutions to hedge risks in the context of such a broad forecast range indicates that professionals are preparing for significant volatility, rather than betting on a clear trend.

Signs of Maturity in Market Structure

Nevertheless, Thorn also pointed out the structural changes taking place beneath the surface of the market. He stated that the long-term volatility of Bitcoin has been on a downward trend, partly due to the expansion of institutional strategies such as selling options for fees and yield-generating programs, which serve to dampen extreme fluctuations.

This trend is also reflected in the “volatility curve” of Bitcoin, as the cost of downside risk protection is currently higher than betting on the upside. This is a characteristic often seen in mature macro assets like stocks or commodities, rather than in high-growth markets.

Why a year of stagnation does not weaken long-term prospects

According to Thorn, the signals above help explain why a sideways or less dynamic year in 2026 will not shake the long-term argument for Bitcoin. Even if the price continues to weaken or retraces to long-term technical levels such as the 200-week moving average, he still expects the participation process of institutions and the maturation of the market to continue.

Galaxy's long-term confidence is not only based on short-term price fluctuations but also on the increasing integration of Bitcoin into the financial system. In a report dated December 18, the company suggests that a large asset allocation platform could incorporate Bitcoin into standard model portfolios, thus making this asset a default part of investment strategy rather than just appearing in optional decisions.

According to Galaxy, the expanding access of institutions, the ability to loosen monetary conditions, and the demand for alternative assets to fiat currency could lead Bitcoin down the path of gold, becoming a hedge against currency devaluation. Based on that scenario, Galaxy predicts that Bitcoin could reach the milestone of 250,000 USD by the end of 2027.

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