As Bitcoin shows signs of fatigue in its recent performance and market sentiment turns cautious, Citigroup has released a forecast report predicting that Bitcoin could rise to $143,000 in the basic scenario over the next 12 months. Based on the current price of about $88,000, this implies a potential upside of 62% for Bitcoin.
Citigroup analysts Alex Saunders, Dirk Willer, and Vinh Vo pointed out in a joint report that as Bitcoin enters the new year, the price range may fall between “$80,000 and $90,000,” mainly supported by user activity, but the real highlight will be next year.
The Citigroup analysis team predicts that as the legislative process related to digital assets in the United States is expected to make substantial progress in the second quarter, the adoption rate of cryptocurrencies will see a new wave of explosion.
On the technical side, the Citigroup team specifically pointed out that $70,000 is a key “psychological barrier” and support level. Analysts noted that this price level is roughly the starting point before Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election, carrying significant indicative meaning. If it falls below this level, market confidence is likely to be tested.
3 Scenarios Simulation: From Recession Risk to Bull Market
In order to allow investors to more accurately assess risks and returns, Citibank has outlined 3 possible scenarios for the Bitcoin trend over the next 12 months:
1. Base Case: Directly hitting $143,000
This is the scenario that Citigroup believes is most likely to occur. The resurgence of demand from Bitcoin spot ETFs and the spillover effects of the overall optimistic expectations in the US stock market.
Analysts have pointed out that the “Digital Asset Market Clarity Act” will be an important catalyst. This bill, aimed at clarifying regulatory responsibilities, has passed the House of Representatives. If it can successfully complete the legislative process and be signed into law, it will remove the biggest barrier for institutional funds to enter the market and further drive a wave of capital influx.
2. Bear Case: Drop to 78,500 USD
Even in the worst-case scenario, Citigroup believes that the downside potential for Bitcoin is relatively limited. Analysts believe that if the global economy falls into recession, it could drag down the performance of risk assets, and Bitcoin would have a hard time being unaffected.
3. Bullish Scenario (Bull Case): Soaring to $189,000
The premise for this situation to occur lies in the comprehensive explosion of demand from end investors, including more long-term funds, retirement funds, and large institutions incorporating Bitcoin into their asset allocation, forming a more sustainable buying structure.
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