What will happen to Hedera (HBAR) in January 2026?

Hedera (HBAR) faces prolonged downward pressure over the past two months, reflecting a general weakening trend in the cryptocurrency market. The HBAR price has continuously plummeted as risk appetite declines and capital shifts toward defensive assets.

Although it has just experienced sharp declines, the current market structure indicates that January could become a significant turning point for this altcoin’s growth momentum.

HBAR Price History: The Numbers That Speak

January is always considered the most favorable period for HBAR’s performance. Over more than seven years of trading history, this token has recorded an average January return of 38%, with a median return of 19.7%. These figures demonstrate stable seasonal strength, not just short-term rallies.

Monthly Profit History of HBAR | Source: CryptoRankData on seasonality still holds significant importance for long-term investors. If historical trends repeat, HBAR could welcome a new wave of buying right at the start of 2026. This is also when traders often rebalance their portfolios, seeking undervalued assets after a prolonged downtrend.

Market Sentiment: Hedera Investors Lean Toward a Downtrend

Derivatives data shows cautious sentiment and a somewhat bearish bias within the Hedera trading community. The short position on the futures market currently stands at around $4.30 million, while actual short volume is lower, approximately $3.16 million. This reflects an imbalance, with expectations that prices will continue to decline.

HBAR Liquidation Map | Source: CoinglassThis position indicates traders are not fully confident that prices will stabilize at the current levels. Typically, when a price decline is forecasted, short positions tend to expand. Although leverage increases volatility, the current market structure remains more pessimistic than risk-averse and optimistic.

Bitcoin Leading the Overall Trend

HBAR maintains a strong correlation with Bitcoin, with a current coefficient of 0.89. This relationship has become more evident in recent sessions, indicating that Hedera’s price movements largely depend on the overall trend of the cryptocurrency market. This further confirms Bitcoin’s leading role in driving short-term momentum for major altcoins.

This correlation presents both opportunities and risks. If Bitcoin recovers, HBAR is likely to grow alongside other large-cap altcoins. Conversely, if Bitcoin continues to weaken, Hedera’s independent recovery potential will be limited.

Correlation Between HBAR and Bitcoin | Source: TradingViewTherefore, macroeconomic factors remain crucial. As long as Bitcoin maintains key support levels, HBAR can benefit from positive spillover effects. However, any deep correction in Bitcoin will exert strong pressure on Hedera’s price structure.

Recovery Outlook: Can HBAR Reclaim Key Support Levels?

At the time of writing, HBAR is trading around $0.110, still constrained below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (from the peak of $0.155 to the trough of $0.102). Although a rebound from this zone is possible, the current bullish momentum is weak and slow.

A deeper correction may be needed to accumulate strength. If the price retreats to the psychological level of $0.100, buying interest could increase significantly, as liquidity tends to concentrate around round numbers. When the price remains below the $0.112–$0.115 range, trading activity mainly reflects distribution rather than accumulation.

HBAR Price Analysis | Source: TradingViewIf buying interest returns, the first target will be to reclaim the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $0.115 to establish a support zone. If successful, HBAR could aim for the $0.130 range in January. Conversely, if bullish momentum weakens or Bitcoin drops sharply, HBAR could fall below $0.100, risking a decline toward $0.099 or lower, thereby negating the previous bullish outlook.