Analysts are optimistic about XRP's mid- to long-term trend: institutions continue to accumulate, and it may challenge $5 in 2026

Recently, XRP prices have been under continuous pressure, hovering around $1.86 at the end of December, with a monthly decline of 15%. In the short term, the weak price trend and unclear direction have caused many retail investors to lose patience with XRP. However, several analysts believe that behind this sideways consolidation, a major volatility that could change the trend is brewing.

Analysis indicates that one of the potential triggers is the expiration of global options totaling up to $7.1 trillion, considered the largest options expiration in history, which could have a profound impact on the entire cryptocurrency market, including XRP. Analyst Zach Rector believes this event may force large institutions to close positions, thereby breaking the current downtrend. He emphasizes that XRP’s weakness is not due to lack of demand but has been suppressed for a long time by excessive leverage in the derivatives market.

Looking at the price path, Rector expects XRP to temporarily dip to the $1.60–1.70 range to clear high-leverage positions, but this pullback is more like a “final dip.” Once selling pressure is released and volatility increases, XRP is expected to enter a new upward phase, laying the foundation to challenge $5 by 2026.

From a fundamental perspective, Ripple Chief Technology Officer David Schwartz emphasizes that the core measure of XRP’s value is not its short-term price but its global liquidity and real-world use cases. Currently, XRP remains one of the top market cap digital assets, with over $100 billion in available liquidity, giving it long-term competitiveness in cross-border payments and real financial scenarios.

It is worth noting that institutional funds continue to flow into XRP. Against the backdrop of the US ETF market attracting approximately $1.4 trillion in 2025, XRP-related products have performed particularly well. Even during periods when funds are flowing out of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, XRP remains relatively strong. Since its launch in mid-November, multiple spot XRP ETFs have absorbed over $1.1 billion, with total assets rising to about $1.25 billion.

Meanwhile, bearish sentiment on XRP on social media has significantly increased. Historical data shows that when negative sentiment erupts and retail investors are generally bearish, it often creates conditions for a price rebound. Overall, the current decline of XRP appears more like a market reshuffle. As institutional participation continues to grow, the divergence between XRP’s price and its actual adoption may gradually be repaired over the next two years.