From betting on Trump to gambling on the NFL: Prediction markets to hit a record high in 2025

BlockBeats News, December 26 — 2025 is predicted to be the hottest year in the history of prediction markets. With Polymarket and Kalshi emerging as leading platforms in the industry, the sector is experiencing a surge in investment scale, media exposure, and valuation, gradually moving into mainstream visibility. As the 2026 US midterm elections approach, prediction markets are seen as a key scenario that could replicate the trading frenzy of the 2024 presidential election. The core question for the market is: can these platforms evolve from “traffic and topic-driven” to scalable prediction infrastructure? Capital is accelerating its entry, and valuations are rising rapidly: Kalshi completed a $1 billion financing in November, with a valuation of $11 billion, led by Sequoia Capital and CapitalG; earlier in October, it raised $300 million in Series D funding, valuing it at $5 billion. Polymarket: NYSE parent company ICE invested $2 billion, and CEO Shayne Coplan disclosed the company’s valuation at approximately $9 billion. Analysts point out that the core value of prediction markets lies not in short-term revenue but in collective intelligence and globally distributed prediction data. Leo Chan, CEO of Sportstensor, stated that such data is highly valuable for financial institutions and non-trading users alike. During the 2024 US election, prediction market trading volume surged. According to Chainalysis, a major French Polymarket trader bet on Trump winning, profiting $78.7 million. Moving into 2025, the two major platforms are accelerating business collaborations: Kalshi has partnered with CNBC and CNN, while Polymarket has teamed up with Yahoo Finance, UFC, and NHL, signing multi-year licensing agreements with both platforms. As the midterm elections approach, prediction markets are expected to see a new wave of explosive growth. However, the market consensus is that 2026 will be a watershed year for testing the long-term value of prediction markets: whether they can truly demonstrate their unique roles in information discovery, risk pricing, and decision support will determine if this sector moves from a hype to maturity.