Bitcoin faces a year-end defense battle, XRP ETF surge triggers token supply crisis

Bitcoin needs to rise by 6.24% before the end of the year to avoid its first loss after the halving. The opening price of $93,374 has fallen to $89,000, down 30% from the all-time high. Since breaking below the 365-day moving average in November, the structural upward trend has been broken. On the other hand, XRP faces supply tightness due to ETF buying, with exchange reserves dropping to a new low of 1.5 billion coins, while 6 US ETFs have absorbed 750 million coins.

Bitcoin Year-End Defense: The 6.24% Historic Challenge

(Source: Trading View)

If Bitcoin is to deliver a strong finish in 2025, the road ahead remains challenging. Market analyst Nic Puckrin points out that Bitcoin needs to increase by 6.24% in the last three days of December compared to the opening price of $93,374 for the year to avoid its first annual loss post-halving. This figure may seem small, but it is highly challenging in the current market environment.

Bitcoin halving is a key event in its monetary policy, occurring every four years, reducing miner rewards and decreasing new coin supply. Historical data shows that the first year after halving is usually a bull market year, with Bitcoin often reaching new highs. After the 2016 halving, Bitcoin surged to $20,000 in 2017; after the 2020 halving, it broke $69,000 in 2021. If 2025 ends in a loss, it would break this historical pattern and deal a heavy blow to market confidence.

Currently, Bitcoin is around $89,000, down about 30% from the nearly $125,000 high in October. After October’s peak, Bitcoin prices plummeted sharply, with a shocking flash crash that shook the entire crypto market. Although many analysts forecast Bitcoin reaching between $180,000 and $250,000 by 2025, macroeconomic issues have hindered its upward momentum.

Since November, Bitcoin’s trading price has been below its important 365-day moving average. This breaks the structural upward trend that began in 2023 and has bottomed near $80,000. Currently, investors are debating whether the bull market for Bitcoin has ended or if, with improved liquidity conditions, Bitcoin will hit new highs in 2026.

One of the key factors influencing Bitcoin’s trend is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. The Fed plans to cut rates three times in 2025, each by 25 basis points. However, Fed Chair Powell cautiously looked ahead at the December FOMC meeting last year, stating that “there is no absolutely safe path for policy.” CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows only an 18.8% chance that the Fed will cut rates again in January. This suggests that recent liquidity injections are unlikely, and such injections typically benefit risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

XRP Supply Crisis: ETF Absorbs 750 Million Exchange Reserves

(Source: Trading View)

XRP is experiencing severe supply tightness, with controlled exchange reserves dropping to about 1.5 billion coins, a new low in over a year. According to Glassnode data, the amount of XRP held on exchanges has been steadily declining since early 2025, when it was around 4 billion coins. The largest decline occurred in Q4, coinciding closely with the launch of XRP ETFs.

This long-term decline indicates that even as prices fall, holders are increasingly transferring tokens to long-term custody accounts. This reduces short-term selling pressure and may make prices more sensitive to demand fluctuations. When exchange supply decreases, any new buying interest could trigger more dramatic price increases, as available trading chips become scarcer.

The main reason for this supply reduction is the rise of US spot XRP ETFs. Since the launch of the first product last November, these six ETFs have absorbed nearly 750 million XRP tokens. This institutional demand is continuously withdrawing XRP from exchanges, leading to decreased liquidity in the spot market. While this supply-demand shift may not immediately cause price volatility, it will have a significant impact by 2026.

XRP Supply Tightness: Three Major Signals

Exchange Reserves Plummet: From 4 billion coins at the start of the year to 1.5 billion, a 62.5% decrease, reaching multi-year lows

Strong ETF Absorption: Six US spot XRP ETFs have absorbed nearly 750 million coins since November, accounting for 30% of the exchange reduction

Technical Oversold Rebound: Weekly stochastic RSI enters extreme oversold territory, with $1.90 to $2.00 forming a key support zone

Technical analysis indicates that XRP, after a long-term decline starting from a high of around $3.50 in mid-2025, may be at a turning point. Crypto researcher Steph Is Crypto notes that on the weekly chart, XRP is at an important support level in the $1.90 to $2.00 range, which was an early trigger point in this cycle. The weekly stochastic RSI has entered an extremely oversold zone, possibly indicating weakening selling pressure. Some analysts believe that, given this technical situation and the tightening on-chain supply control, XRP could start to strengthen in early 2026.

Ethereum Institutional Staking and Korean Exchange Acquisition

Ethereum vault company Bitmine has launched a large-scale staking operation, depositing approximately $219 million worth of ETH into Ethereum’s proof-of-stake (PoS) system. On-chain data from Arkham shows that on Sunday, many wallets associated with Bitmine sent a total of 74,880 ETH to a contract called “BatchDeposit.” Bitmine is the largest Ethereum vault company, currently holding 4.066 million ETH. This is their first staking operation. If all ETH is staked at the current annual yield of 3.12%, it would generate about 126,800 ETH annually, worth nearly $371 million at the current price of $2,927 per ETH.

It is reported that Mirae Asset Group is negotiating to acquire Korea’s fourth-largest crypto exchange, Korbit, for between $70 million and $100 million. This is undoubtedly a significant step for Korea’s traditional finance sector entering the digital asset space. Mirae Asset will lead this potential acquisition, with a transaction amount estimated between 1 trillion and 1.4 trillion Korean won. The acquisition includes shares of Korbit held by NXC, Simple Capital Futures, and SK Square. Korbit has a full operational license and a comprehensive compliance system, making it an ideal regulatory entry point for large banks and other financial institutions looking to venture into digital assets.