Bitwise Chief Investment Officer: Bitcoin will not perform "exceptionally well" in the next decade

Bitcoin reached a new high of $125,000 in October 2025, but the full year ended with the first half-year decline in black, and the market remains divided on whether it is a bull or bear. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan admits that the next ten years will show a “strong but not surprising” price performance, while Jan3 founder Samson Mow believes a decade-long bull market is coming.

The Four-Year Cycle Curse: What Will Bitcoin’s Price Do in the Next Ten Years?

Recently, in an interview on CNBC, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan pointed out that Bitcoin has bid farewell to the era of rapid multi-fold surges in its early days. Over the next ten years, it will show a “strong but not surprising” upward trend:

Market volatility will gradually decrease, and long-term growth will be steady, with 2026 still being a bullish year.

In response to Bitcoin falling about 30% from its high in Q4 of this year, Hougan attributes the reason to quick-moving retail investors: “They are closing positions early due to the four-year cycle expectations.”

However, he remains optimistic, noting that the current decline is much smaller than the 60% to 70% drops typical of past bear markets, reflecting slow but persistent institutional buying, which is reshaping Bitcoin’s bottom structure.

Farewell to Policy Bonuses? Trump Administration May No Longer Boost Bitcoin

Bitcoin hit $110,000 early in 2025 due to Trump’s inauguration, but Hougan believes that policy incentives have become quite limited in their marginal impact on the market:

As regulatory attitudes become clearer and the SEC has defined cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, their ability to contribute to Bitcoin has diminished.

Currently, Bitcoin has stabilized between $84,000 and $94,000 for about a month. The Fear & Greed Index remains in the “fear” zone at 30, contrasting sharply with predictions from BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes and Ethereum bull Tom Lee, who forecast a year-end target of $250,000.

Is 2025 Already a Bear Market? Samson Mow Bets on a “Decade Bull Market”

On the other hand, as a Bitcoin maximalist, Jan3 founder Samson Mow recently stated, “2025 is the real bear market.” He believes that the market’s weakness is a precursor to a long-term bull run, with Bitcoin possibly entering a decade-long bull market extending to 2035.

Another analyst, PlanC, also pointed out that Bitcoin has never experienced two consecutive years of decline in history: “If you survive 2025, you’ve survived the bear market.”

Previously, analysts like CryptoQuant and Simon Dedic, partner at Moonrock Capital, expressed similar views, believing that the demand zone for this cycle’s bear market is around $56,000. With the current industry cleanup and valuation collapse, the cryptocurrency sector is entering a generational investment opportunity.

(From CryptoQuant Data: Bitcoin Bear Market — The Cryptocurrency Bubble Burst in 2021)

Bitcoin at a Historical Turning Point

As retail and institutional forces shift hands and the four-year cycle logic is increasingly questioned, Bitcoin is undergoing a structural transformation. Features such as institutionalization, maturity, and low volatility are gradually taking shape. The next phase of Bitcoin may be entirely different from the past decade.

This article, Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin Will Not Perform “Outstandingly” in the Next Ten Years, first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.