Ark 2026 Stablecoin Outlook: Tether and Circle Maintain Market Share Advantage, Innovation Momentum Shifts to Emerging Markets

Ark Invest (ARK Invest) Digital Asset Research Director Lorenzo Valente stated in a recent video that stablecoins have entered a completely different development phase compared to the past. From transaction volume scale, institutionalization level, to their linkage with the U.S. bond system, the positioning of stablecoins is no longer just an extension of annual performance but is beginning to be incorporated into the core discussions of the global financial architecture in 2026.

Transaction volume continues to expand steadily, forming a structural growth trend

Valente mentioned that by the end of 2025, the monthly transfer volume of stablecoins has stabilized at 2 – 2.5 trillion USD, with no significant decline since the beginning of the year. He pointed out that this ongoing expansion of monthly scale, despite a high base, indicates that stablecoins have entered a phase of structural growth rather than short-term cycles.

Against this backdrop, market focus has shifted from “whether they will surpass Visa” to whether stablecoins can continue to play a vital role in global payments and capital flows after 2026.

Supply and user growth are synchronized, and the expansion curve continues

From the supply side, the total market cap of stablecoins grew from about 220 billion USD at the start of 2025 to 255 billion USD. Valente clearly stated that this growth is not a one-time jump but a continuous extension trend.

He also mentioned that indicators such as supply volume, active addresses, or transfer counts remain upward, serving as his main basis for predicting that stablecoins will continue to grow in 2026.

Market highly concentrated in Tether and Circle, market share advantage persists

Regarding market structure, Valente’s outlook for 2026 is quite clear. He pointed out that the stablecoin market remains highly concentrated among the two major issuers, Tether and Circle, and believes this pattern will continue in the future.

Valente explained that the main reasons are not single factors but include existing liquidity networks, multi-chain deployment advantages, and the degree of connection with traditional financial systems, making it difficult for disruptive changes to occur in the short term that could impact the market share advantage of these two players.

Cash flow highly concentrated, issuers continue to dominate the industry core

Valente noted that currently, stablecoin issuers have taken over more than half of the application layer revenue in the entire blockchain industry. He straightforwardly stated that as long as stablecoin supply continues to grow, reserves remain primarily in short-term U.S. Treasuries, and interest rate environments do not experience drastic reversals, after 2026, stablecoin issuers will remain the main source of cash flow in the industry.

U.S. Treasury holdings ranking rises, macro influence continues to expand

On a macro level, Valente highlighted that the position of stablecoin issuers within the U.S. bond system is steadily rising. By the end of 2025, stablecoins have collectively become the 17th–18th largest holders of U.S. debt globally, surpassing many sovereign nations.

He pointed out that with the expansion of supply scale, there is still room for this ranking to rise, and this trend has been recognized as strategically significant by U.S. policymakers.

Emerging market demand emerges, innovation shifts focus overseas

On the application side, Valente’s key outlook for 2026 focuses on emerging markets. He stated that the regions with the strongest demand for USD stablecoins are not the United States but Latin America, Asia, and countries experiencing high inflation or unstable local exchange rates.

Valente explained that users in these markets not only need USD-denominated assets but also want to access yield products related to risk-free U.S. interest rates. After the “GENIUS Act” on stablecoins explicitly restricts stablecoins within the U.S. from paying interest directly to holders, he believes that related innovations will continue to develop outside the U.S.

Finally, Valente pointed out that stablecoins are gradually transforming from a part of the crypto industry into global payment and clearing tools, a conduit for U.S. dollar influence, and an important structural holder within the U.S. bond system. 2026 is not a turning point but a continuation and amplification of existing trends.

(2026 Financial Turning Point: Crypto Banks, Stablecoins, and AI Payments Going Mainstream)

This article, Ark’s 2026 Stablecoin Outlook: Tether and Circle Maintain Market Share Advantage, and Innovation Shifts to Emerging Markets, first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.