Data shows that Bitcoin has been in a bear market for the past 2 months

Bitcoin may have entered a bear market two months ago, according to some indicators such as the one-year moving average, as stated by the head of research at CryptoQuant.

In a recent episode of the Milk Road program, Julio Moreno – representative of CryptoQuant – said that most of the indicators he uses to assess growth trends have turned negative since early November and have not yet recovered.

This indicator evaluates market conditions based on factors such as network activity, investor profits, demand for Bitcoin, and liquidity, with a score from 0 to 100.

“For me, the final confirmation comes from a technical indicator: Bitcoin’s price drops below the one-year moving average. This is the clearest technical signal confirming a bear market.”

The one-year moving average is the average price of an asset over 12 months, commonly used to identify long-term trends.

According to data from Coinphoton, Bitcoin (BTC) started 2025 at around $93,000, peaked at $126,080 in October, but ended the year lower than at the beginning.

If Bitcoin is truly in a bear market, this would contradict many analysts’ forecasts that 2026 will be a strong growth year for this digital currency.

Bitcoin’s bottom could be in the range of $56,000 – $60,000

Previous crypto bear markets have often experienced sharp declines and took many years to recover.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $88,543 (as of Friday). However, Moreno predicts that next year, the bear market bottom is likely to be in the range of $56,000 – $60,000, based on actual prices and Bitcoin’s past behavior.

Moreno predicts that the market bottom could be reached within the next year | Source: YouTube“History shows that in previous bear markets, prices often fall to what is called the ‘realized price’ – the average price at which holders bought Bitcoin,” Moreno explained.

“In a bull market, prices often exceed this level, but when entering a bear market, this is the basic threshold to expect for the bottom,” he added.

This decline may be less severe

The drop from the all-time high to $56,000 is about 55%. Moreno considers this a positive sign, as previous decline cycles saw drops of up to 70 – 80%.

“Looking optimistically, this decline from the peak isn’t as large as in previous bear markets. We’ve seen drops of 70%, even 80%, but now it’s only about 55%,” he said.

The current bear market is more stable and has more supporting factors

Moreno also noted that this bear market is more stable due to the absence of major collapses like before. In the 2022 bear market, the Terra ecosystem collapsed in May, followed by Celsius Network in June and FTX in November, causing major shocks to the entire industry.

Additionally, many large organizations are now regularly accumulating cryptocurrencies, the number of traders and investors willing to participate is increasing, along with the emergence of more reputable companies and projects.

“Regarding demand, many investor groups are now making periodic purchases. In previous bear markets, demand usually declined sharply. I believe that structurally, we are witnessing participation from institutions, ETF funds not selling, and buying activity continuing,” Moreno concluded.

Mr. Giáo