500 million XRP locked until 2028, with over $1 billion worth of supply frozen—will this trigger a new market rally?

XRP prices have recently shown a clear upward trend, successfully climbing back above $2 amid a rebound in overall risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market. As investor sentiment improves, XRP has not only ended its previous weeks of sideways consolidation but also temporarily surpassed BNB in market capitalization, attracting renewed market attention. However, this rally is not solely driven by short-term speculation; deeper structural changes are taking shape.

On-chain data indicates that over 500 million XRP have recently been transferred into escrow mechanisms, with locking periods extending until 2028. This move is equivalent to temporarily removing over $1 billion worth of XRP from the circulating supply, directly reducing tradable supply. With demand remaining stable or even growing modestly, supply contraction often amplifies price elasticity, providing additional support for XRP’s price. This is one of the core reasons market participants are currently focused on the “impact of XRP supply locking on price.”

From the holder structure perspective, the behavior of long-term XRP holders is undergoing positive changes. The HODLer net position change indicator shows that long-term holders, after nearly a month of reducing their holdings, are now increasing their positions again. These wallets typically focus more on medium- to long-term trends rather than short-term fluctuations, and their return often signals growing confidence in XRP’s medium-term prospects. The re-entry of long-term funds helps buffer selling pressure during corrections and enhances overall price stability.

In terms of price action, XRP has risen approximately 6.7% over the past 24 hours and is currently oscillating around $2.00. This level is both a psychological milestone and a short-term support/resistance level. If the price can hold above $2.00 and break through the resistance zone at $2.03, it may continue upward toward the $2.10 area, which is rich in historical trading volume and liquidity.

Of course, downside risks should not be overlooked. Some short-term holders may take profits after the rebound, and if selling pressure intensifies, XRP could retest the support at $1.93. If this level is broken, the possibility of further decline toward $1.86 increases, and the overall trend could turn neutral to weak.

In summary, the locking of 500 million XRP until 2028 is reshaping the supply and demand structure, combined with long-term holders increasing their positions, providing important variables for XRP’s medium-term trajectory. Whether the price can continue to strengthen in the future largely depends on the effective defense of the $2.00 level and the continuation of market confidence.