$328 million HYPE is about to unlock, Hyperliquid price remains suppressed by the downward channel

Ahead of the upcoming large-scale token unlock, Hyperliquid (HYPE) price remains in a clear downtrend, with overall market sentiment cautious. As the key unlock event on January 6 approaches, traders are reassessing short-term risks and potential volatility.

Currently, HYPE is priced at $26.45, rebounding about 4% in the past 24 hours. However, from a medium-term perspective, its price is still down approximately 15% from last month, and the decline from the September 2025 all-time high of nearly $59 has exceeded 50%. Over the past week, HYPE has fluctuated between $24.03 and $27.18, indicating limited rebound momentum.

Trading activity has noticeably increased. Data shows that Hyperliquid’s 24-hour spot trading volume has grown by 52%, reaching approximately $236 million; futures volume has risen by 28% to $1.21 billion, with open interest slightly up to $1.43 billion. This combination typically indicates the market is building new positions rather than large-scale liquidations, reflecting investors’ preference for observation and positioning rather than a clear trend reversal bet.

Market focus is on the upcoming HYPE token unlock event. According to Tokenomist data, about 12.46 million HYPE tokens will be unlocked on January 6, accounting for 3.61% of the circulating supply, valued at approximately $328 million at current prices. Currently, about 38% of the total supply has been released, and the additional supply from the unlock naturally raises short-term selling pressure concerns, especially given the ongoing downtrend.

However, some risks may have already been priced in. Historical experience shows that anticipated token unlocks often complete a round of adjustment before the event. If demand remains stable, prices may stabilize after the unlock. Additionally, Hyperliquid’s deflationary mechanism offsets some supply pressure. The protocol’s revenue continues to be used for buybacks and token burns, with about 37.5 million tokens destroyed in late December alone, worth over $900 million, and daily buyback activity is ongoing.

From a technical perspective, HYPE still maintains a downward trend with lower highs and lower lows, trading below medium- and long-term moving averages. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating a potential major move approaching. The RSI has risen to around 50, suggesting weakening bearish momentum but no reversal yet. In the short term, the key resistance zone remains at $29–$30, while the $24–$25 range is a critical support zone to watch before and after the unlock.