OpenAI·Scale AI 'Huge Deal'… The venture capital market will be reshaped around AI by 2026

In 2025, the rapid development of artificial intelligence(AI) technology will be remembered for injecting vitality into the global venture capital market. According to preliminary data from Crunchbase, a total of $205 billion (approximately 295.2 trillion KRW) was invested throughout the year, centered around the AI industry, setting the third-highest record in venture capital funding history. Especially in the first half of the year, investment amounts increased by 32% compared to the previous year, marking the strongest rebound since 2022. Recently, the venture capital industry believes this trend will continue into 2026, with some industry insiders indicating that a new phase of more concentrated capital allocation is imminent.

2025 also saw a record-breaking single investment case. In the second quarter, Scale AI raised $14.3 billion (about 20.5 trillion KRW), while in the first quarter, OpenAI raised the highest ever $40 billion (approximately 576 trillion KRW). Both are representative companies within the AI industry and are expected to exert significant influence in both AI technology infrastructure and application fields in the future.

In response, major venture investors unanimously agree that risk capital will continue to grow in 2026. Matthew M., Managing Director of Insight Partners, predicts that venture investment will increase by about 10% compared to 2025, while Tim Tully of Menlo Ventures forecasts a possible growth of around 25%. He explained, “Large funds are significantly increasing their capital strength, and investment rounds themselves are also expanding overall.” Anders Ranu, partner at Sapphire Ventures, also expressed an optimistic outlook, believing that “growth could be between 10-15%.”

This year, the qualitative landscape of venture capital has also shown clear signs of change. Investors are especially focusing on fields such as AI infrastructure, defense technology, and medical AI. Tim Tully analyzed, “2026 will be a turning point for the reduction in hardware costs like sensors and batteries, as well as the enhanced physical implementation capabilities of AI.” On the other hand, sectors like vertical SaaS or cryptocurrencies, which have shown continued sluggishness, are likely to lose attention. Ranu emphasized, “Although demand is stagnant, the AI field that combines technological strength and market results will still attract capital.”

There are also predictions that the entry barriers into the venture capital world will further rise. Capital is expected to be more clearly concentrated in large growth rounds rather than large seed rounds or Series A funding. Particularly, AI-native companies or vertically integrated AI solutions deeply embedded in industries are expected to become the focus of massive funding rounds. The accompanying judgment is that small and medium-sized funds will have to shift toward early-stage investments or participate in smaller rounds.

The birth of unicorns and the IPO market are also expected to undergo changes. While investors are optimistic about the possibility that high-growth AI companies could surpass high standards, they also actively predict that the public listing market may be more vibrant than last year. Some warn that liquidity acquisition strategies centered on mergers and acquisitions or secondary markets may still dominate, but others expect that, with the growth of AI as a major trend, large-scale mergers and acquisitions will officially unfold.

In summary, 2026 is likely to become a period of structural transformation and evolution for the AI industry and venture capital. The era of simply riding technological trends for investment has ended; profitability, efficiency, and technological competitive advantages will become the core conditions for attracting capital. Under this tone, the selection and concentration within the venture capital market are expected to become even more apparent.