The United States, after Maduro was expelled, oil prices soared... The change of government in Venezuela triggered turmoil in the oil market.

After the United States expelled Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, uncertainty in the international crude oil market increased, with New York oil prices soaring nearly 2%. Although Maduro has stepped down, sanctions against Venezuela continue, intensifying market tensions.

On the 5th local time, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for February delivery traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $58.32 per barrel, up $1 (1.74%) from the previous trading day. This is interpreted as an example of how internal political changes in the Americas, unlike the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, can have a significant short-term impact on oil prices.

The core of this surge lies in the U.S. government’s intervention to promote regime change in Venezuela and the potential reorganization of the oil market it may trigger. President Donald Trump stated that the U.S. will actively participate in rebuilding Venezuela’s oil infrastructure after the arrest and extradition of Maduro to New York. Some predictions suggest that major U.S. refineries may also invest billions of dollars in this reconstruction effort.

However, experts remain cautious about the time required for actual supply recovery. Currently, Venezuela’s daily production is about 1 million barrels, less than 1% of global oil supply. Analysts point out that restoring production to the pre-collapse level of 4 million barrels per day would require up to $100 billion in investment and a stable security environment over the next decade.

The market is particularly focused on the fact that the U.S. has not yet lifted economic sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil. Although President Trump has explicitly stated that sanctions will remain in place and that reconstruction plans will proceed simultaneously, there is no clear roadmap. Experts believe that if sanctions are fully lifted and a smooth transfer of power occurs, production could potentially recover by hundreds of thousands of barrels within a year; but they also warn that if a chaotic transfer of power similar to Libya or Iraq occurs, all expectations could be dashed.

This trend demonstrates how strongly the geopolitical situation surrounding Venezuela can impact the international energy market. Going forward, depending on the extent of U.S. political intervention, whether sanctions are relaxed, and the speed of internal order restoration in Venezuela, the outlook for crude oil supply and oil prices could experience significant fluctuations.