Previously accurately predicted the timing of gold's surge! Commodity strategist: Bearish on Bitcoin in 2026

Commodity strategist Mike McGlone accurately predicted a 64% rise in gold in 2025 and has released his 2026 forecast: gold faces the risk of “overheating,” while U.S. Treasuries will capture excess returns. He predicts the probability of Bitcoin dropping to $50,000 is higher than rebounding to $100,000, citing last year’s 19% decline in the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index.

McGlone’s Three Major Market Predictions Shake Wall Street

Echoing views from well-known figures like Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, McGlone stated on January 1 that 2026 will be a year full of volatility and crises, but also opportunities. For those “skilled in tactical operations,” it could even be a year to make a significant profit. As the strategist who accurately forecasted a 64% increase in gold in 2025, his 2026 predictions warrant high market attention.

McGlone’s first major judgment is: precious metals like gold and silver may face the risk of “overheating” in 2026. Driven by geopolitical hotspots and the Federal Reserve’s loose interest rate cycle, gold prices surged 64% last year. However, McGlone believes this rally has already overextended some expectations, and precious metals may face correction pressures in 2026. He views gold’s “alpha generation” (its ability to outperform the market) as an important early warning signal, which was quite evident throughout most of 2025.

The second, bolder judgment: U.S. Treasuries will become the star asset in 2026. McGlone predicts that Treasuries will outperform gold and capture alpha returns. This view contrasts sharply with mainstream market expectations, as most analysts believe that amid inflationary pressures and expanding fiscal deficits, Treasury yields will continue to rise (prices fall). McGlone’s logic is that if the economy truly enters recession, the Fed may be forced to cut interest rates further, which would push up Treasury prices.

The third judgment concerns the cryptocurrency market: the probability of Bitcoin falling to $50,000 is higher than rebounding to $100,000. He cites last year’s 19% decline in the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index as evidence. McGlone wrote, “Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have peaked; crypto assets may lead the decline in the next inflationary-deflation cycle because wealth creation will revert.”

A Historical Warning of the Great Depression 2.0

Although his tone is restrained, McGlone hints through historical analogy that 2026 will be a year of crisis. Specifically, he believes U.S. President Trump will be “ill-timed,” in a situation similar to President Herbert Hoover. It is well known that Hoover took office in 1929, just months before the Great Depression erupted.

This analogy is highly impactful. The Great Depression was the most severe economic crisis of the 20th century, causing U.S. unemployment to soar to 25%, stock markets to crash 89%, and the global economy to enter a decade-long recession. McGlone compares Trump to Hoover, implying that a systemic economic crisis could occur in 2026, potentially far surpassing a typical recession.

His warning signals come from the divergence between gold and crude oil. He wrote, “Gold’s alpha generation in 2025 is a warning—especially when compared to weakening crude oil.” During normal economic expansions, gold and oil tend to rise together, benefiting from inflation expectations. But when gold surges while oil remains weak, it often signals market preparations for recession or financial crisis. The surge in gold’s safe-haven demand coupled with declining oil demand expectations has historically appeared before economic crises.

Predictions for the Fate of the Three Major Markets in 2026

Gold and Precious Metals: Facing “overheating” correction risk, may pull back short-term but remain safe-haven assets long-term

U.S. Treasuries: Will become star assets, capturing excess returns from gold, benefiting from potential rate-cutting cycles

Bitcoin and Crypto: Higher likelihood of dropping to $50,000 than rebounding to $100,000, leading in a deflationary cycle

Breaking the Four-Year Cycle of Bitcoin: A Warning

One external indicator of the crypto bull market is that the “four-year cycle” pattern of Bitcoin has been broken. Historically, Bitcoin tends to experience three consecutive years of gains followed by a significant correction. After reaching nearly $125,000 in 2025, the all-time high, Bitcoin closed the year with about an 8% decline, suggesting further downside is more likely.

McGlone’s reasoning is that crypto assets generally perform weaker than traditional safe-haven assets during a deflationary cycle. When the economy enters recession, investors prioritize liquidity and safe-haven instruments with the longest track record, such as U.S. Treasuries and gold, while risk assets like cryptocurrencies face selling pressure. Additionally, the phrase “wealth creation will revert” hints at the bursting of speculative bubbles, with capital flowing back from high-risk assets to traditional financial instruments.

The 19% decline in the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index last year is an important leading indicator. This index covers Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major cryptos, often leading individual assets. When the index declines overall, even if Bitcoin remains relatively strong in the short term, weakness in other cryptos will eventually drag down the entire market.

How Investors Should Respond to Crisis Predictions

For investors seeking to profit from McGlone’s forecasts, tactical operations are crucial. If the commodity strategist’s judgment proves correct, 2026 will be a year of high volatility and complexity. In this environment, flexible asset allocation, strict stop-loss settings, and maintaining ample cash reserves are essential risk management strategies.

Gold investors should be cautious of correction risks after “overheating” and consider gradually taking profits after new highs. U.S. Treasuries may become unexpected winners but require tolerance for short-term volatility and uncertainty. Crypto investors need to prepare for potential deep corrections; $50,000 could be a key psychological support level and a possible bottom-fishing opportunity.

However, forecasts are not destiny. Markets are full of uncertainties, and even McGlone, who accurately predicted gold’s rise, could be wrong in 2026. Investors should treat his views as important references but not follow blindly. Diversification, independent thinking, and dynamic adjustments are key to navigating volatility.