Fitch: Expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice in the first half of the year, with the unemployment rate remaining around 4.6% this year

Odaily Planet Daily News: Fitch has upgraded its forecast for US GDP growth in 2025 and 2026. The adjustment was made after incorporating economic data that was delayed due to the government shutdown at the end of last year. Fitch now expects GDP to grow by 2.1% in 2025, higher than the 1.8% predicted in its December 2025 Global Economic Outlook (GEO). At the same time, the growth forecast for 2026 has been raised from 1.9% in the previous report to 2.0%. Due to incomplete data for October, recent CPI inflation trends are difficult to interpret. It is estimated that the inflation rate will rise to 3.0% in December 2025 (from 2.7% in November), and influenced by delayed tariff pass-through, it will further increase in 2026, reaching an estimated 3.2% by the end of the year. As the impact of slowing employment growth is offset by a decline in labor force growth, the average unemployment rate in 2026 is expected to be 4.6%, close to recent levels. We expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice in the first half of 2026, lowering the federal funds rate (upper limit) to 3.25%. (Jin10)