Bitnomial Wins CFTC Approval to Launch U.S. Prediction Markets

• Bitnomial obtains no-action relief from the CFTC to operate event-based prediction markets in the USA.
• The approval is for the limited swap reporting and recordkeeping obligations.
• It provides a regulated space for U.S.-based prediction market trading.

Bitnomial has now removed an essential regulatory milestone for the launch of its prediction markets within the United States, and this is an essential step toward the regulation of event trading and associated operations.

In a notice published on Jan. 8, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission confirmed that its Division of Market Oversight and Division of Clearing and Risk issued a narrowly scoped no-action letter covering Bitnomial’s proposed event-based contracts. The decision gives Bitnomial regulatory clarity to proceed without facing enforcement action for limited deviations from certain swap reporting and record-keeping rules.

What the CFTC approval allows

Under the no-action letter, the CFTC said it will not pursue enforcement against Bitnomial Exchange or Bitnomial Clearinghouse for specific reporting requirements that normally apply to swaps. The relief applies only to a narrow class of contracts described as binary and bounded event contracts, commonly known as prediction markets.

These contracts settle based on clearly defined outcomes, such as whether a specific market event occurs or whether a variable stays within a set range. Because they are resolved quickly and traded quite frequently, traditional requirements for swap reporting can generate operating frictions.

The exemption is still limited and incremental. Bitnomial will only trade the contracts on its exchange and clear them on its registered clearinghouse. The company will still have to be fully collateralized, disclose trade information publicly, and provide trade data to regulators on demand.

The CFTC observed that this is consistent with previous no-action relief extended to other managed markets offering similar event-based products.

Why the decision matters

The approval gives Bitnomial a viable path to launch regulated prediction markets inside the United States. Without this relief, the cost and complexity of swap reporting could have made these products impractical to operate onshore.

Prediction markets have grown rapidly as tools for price discovery, hedging, and expressing probabilistic views on real-world events. However, most existing platforms operate offshore or in regulatory gray areas, limiting access for U.S.-based traders and institutions.

On the other hand, Bitnomial is already operating as a designated contract market and a registered derivatives clearing organization. The latest approval broadens the existing products of the company that correspond to futures and options to event contracts.

Regulated alternative to offshore platforms

The shift also signifies a transformation in the U.S. market structure. Contrary to efforts to move prediction markets out of the regulatory boundary, it seems that CFTC policies enable such markets to function within set boundaries. Market participants benefit from event-based markets that have rules set around them.

Institutions are one of the groups that stand to benefit greatly from the emergence of Bitnomial prediction markets. Many institutions have stayed away from offshore prediction markets due to risks associated with compliance and counterparty risk. Bitnomial prediction markets provide an environment that is acceptable to institutions from a risk perspective.

What comes next

Bitnomial has not announced its product lineup nor its product launch yet for prediction markets. Nonetheless, with the no-action letter, the main regulatory constraint has been mitigated.

With interest in event-driven trading increasing in financial, political, and macro markets, BITNomial’s approval could be an indication of an opening for regulated prediction markets in the U.S. The ruling has also paved the way for platforms to seek special regulatory relief rather than operating in opposition to it.

For now, Bitnomial stands positioned to become one of the first exchanges to offer federally supervised prediction markets to U.S. traders, marking a notable evolution in crypto and derivatives market structure.

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