VanEck provides a super-long-term forecast: Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050. What is the reasoning behind this?

Asset management firm VanEck has released its latest Bitcoin price forecast report, sparking widespread market discussion on long-term valuation. According to the institution’s digital asset research team, under the baseline scenario, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $2.9 million by 2050.

VanEck currently manages approximately $161 billion in assets. This forecast was jointly prepared by its Head of Digital Asset Research Matthew Sigel and Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush, and was officially published on January 8, 2026. The report adopts a 15% annual compound growth rate as the core assumption for Bitcoin’s development over the next 25 years.

In the model setup, VanEck views Bitcoin as a long-term asset with global settlement properties. The analysis suggests that by 2050, Bitcoin could settle between 5% and 10% of international trade globally, while covering about 5% of domestic trade scenarios in various countries. Against the backdrop of continuous expansion of global liquidity and the long-term dilution of fiat currency purchasing power, Bitcoin may gradually assume the role of a “non-sovereign store of value.”

The report also mentions that adoption at the central bank level is an important component of the valuation model. VanEck assumes that in the future, central banks in various countries may allocate about 2.5% of their assets to Bitcoin. Under this assumption, if the price of a single Bitcoin reaches $2.9 million, its market value would account for approximately 1.66% of the total global financial assets.

VanEck also provides price ranges under different scenarios. In a pessimistic scenario, with an annual compound growth rate of only 2%, the 2050 price would be around $130,000; in an optimistic scenario, with an annual growth rate of 20%, Bitcoin could reach $52.24 million.

In terms of practical application, Bitcoin has already played a role in some international trade, especially in sanctioned countries such as Venezuela, Iran, and Russia. In contrast, the adoption rate of Bitcoin for trade settlement remains relatively low among G7 countries. As of September 2025, the US dollar still dominates global trade settlement.

VanEck emphasizes that this forecast is not a short-term trading judgment but a systematic projection based on global debt structures, monetary policy risks, and long-term settlement needs. For investors, the long-term value logic of Bitcoin is shifting from a “speculative asset” to a “macro hedge tool.”