Founder Securities: Market prices in January for the Federal Reserve to not cut interest rates, with the earliest rate cut possibly starting in June

PANews January 10 News, according to Jintiao reports, Fangzheng Securities research report states that the December non-farm payroll data was mixed. The overall US employment market is experiencing a mild downward trend, but the marginal improvement in the unemployment rate provides the Federal Reserve with more reasons to hold a wait-and-see stance in January. Combined with the possibility that the Supreme Court may declare IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional, this could be short-term bullish for US stocks and the US dollar, and bearish for US bonds: data such as new employment, job vacancy rate, and wage growth indicate that the US employment market in December remains relatively weak, but the marginal decline in the unemployment rate is one of the few bright spots.

From the perspective of interest rate futures and US Treasury movements, market pricing after the data release indicates that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in January, with the earliest possible rate cut in June.

Meanwhile, due to the recent possibility that the Supreme Court may declare IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional, economic expectations may marginally improve, inflation pressures weaken, but fiscal deficits worsen. Under the combination of the Federal Reserve being cautious about cutting rates and tariffs cooling down, short-term US bonds face many unfavorable factors, with a high probability of remaining at high levels. US stocks benefit from the AI boom and reduced tariff disruptions, especially in sectors like discretionary consumption and industry that are more resilient to tariff impacts.