Goldman Sachs Outlook for 2026: Strong US Economic Growth Coexists with Moderate Inflation, Federal Reserve to Cut Rates Twice More

PANews January 12 News, according to Jinshi reports, Goldman Sachs economists believe that this year the US economy will be driven by tax cuts, real wage growth, and rising wealth, while inflation will moderate. Based on the “US Economic Outlook 2026” report released by the bank on January 11, due to increased uncertainty in the labor market outlook, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June and September respectively. Additionally, Goldman Sachs forecasts that the GDP growth rate in 2026 (year-over-year in the fourth quarter) will be 2.5%, and 2.8% for the full year; by December, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate will be 2.1% year-over-year, and the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) will slow to 2%; the baseline forecast is that the unemployment rate will remain stable at 4.5%, but there is a risk of a period of “jobless growth” as companies seek to leverage artificial intelligence to reduce labor costs. In terms of trade, Goldman Sachs assumes that upcoming midterm elections will make cost of living a major political issue, prompting the White House to avoid any further significant tariff hikes.