Lighter Price Prediction: LIT drops 20% below key level, selling pressure is still being released

January 2026, Lighter prices continue to face pressure, and LIT accelerated downward after breaking below the key support at $2.30, with a clear change in market structure. As of now, LIT is quoted at $2.07, down approximately 20% in the past 24 hours, with a nearly 31% retracement over the past week. Compared to the peak of $7.86 reached after its launch at the end of December 2025, the current price has fallen by over 70%, reflecting ongoing selling pressure since listing.

Looking at the price range, over the past seven days, LIT has fluctuated between $2.07 and $3.21, but the center of gravity has been steadily declining. Overall, market sentiment remains bearish, with trading volume down about 64% to $15 million, indicating that after losing key support, buying interest has significantly weakened.

Meanwhile, the derivatives market shows a different picture. Data indicates that perpetual contract trading volume has more than doubled, with open interest increasing in tandem, suggesting that short-term funds are engaging in speculative battles around price fluctuations rather than building medium- or long-term positions. This structure generally implies that volatility risk has not been fully released.

Looking at the fundamentals, Lighter is a decentralized trading protocol based on Ethereum’s perpetual contracts, emphasizing on-chain execution and zero fees. In 2025, it secured funding from institutions such as Founders Fund and Ribbit Capital. Early in the year, the project announced that part of its protocol revenue would be used for token buybacks, which temporarily boosted LIT’s rebound. However, as early holders reduced their positions and sector rotations occurred, this positive effect quickly faded.

From a technical perspective, short-term charts have formed a clear downward channel. The price remains below key moving averages, with repeated resistance to rebounds. Momentum indicators show oversold conditions, which could trigger a technical rebound, but bears still hold dominance. If support around $2.00 fails, Lighter’s price may test lower levels. Overall, the current phase more heavily tests the market’s patience regarding LIT’s long-term value.