January 15 News, well-known crypto market investor Arthur Hayes stated that although Bitcoin’s market performance in 2025 significantly lags behind gold and the technology sector, over a longer cycle, Bitcoin still has a high probability of reaching a new all-time high in 2026. He emphasized that the core variable influencing Bitcoin’s future trend is not short-term price fluctuations, but the changing trend of dollar liquidity.
Arthur Hayes pointed out that for Bitcoin to once again outperform gold and the Nasdaq Index, the prerequisite is that dollar liquidity re-enters an expansion cycle. If the supply of dollars cannot continue to increase, risk assets in the market will struggle to gain enough upward momentum, and Bitcoin will naturally be constrained. In his view, dollar liquidity is the key fundamental factor determining Bitcoin’s long-term value.
In his latest analysis, Arthur Hayes mentioned that factors potentially driving a significant rebound in liquidity include the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expansion, which will release more funds into the financial system. Meanwhile, as the overall financial environment gradually loosens, mortgage rates may fall, and commercial banks’ lending behaviors will also change accordingly, with more funds expected to flow into strategic industries supported by the U.S. government.
Additionally, military-related expenditures are also seen as a potential source of liquidity. Arthur Hayes believes that maintaining influence globally requires long-term fiscal and financial support, and related financing will ultimately be completed through the banking system, objectively promoting the expansion of the money supply. This background is bullish for scarce assets like Bitcoin in the medium to long term.
Looking back at history, a loose monetary environment often increases investors’ demand for inflation-hedging assets, benefiting Bitcoin. Arthur Hayes also candidly admitted that the phased contraction of dollar liquidity in 2025 is closely correlated with a decline in Bitcoin prices. During the same period, Bitcoin’s annual decline exceeded 14%, while gold prices rose by over 44%.
In comparison, technology stocks performed strongly, becoming the highest-return sector within the S&P 500 Index. Arthur Hayes attributes this divergence to policy influences, believing that AI-related sectors in the U.S. and China already possess clear strategic attributes. Even if some traditional indicators are weak, funds continue to flow into this direction.
From a medium to long-term perspective, Arthur Hayes remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects, expecting a new trend cycle in 2026 amid the re-expansion of dollar liquidity.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Data: Yesterday, the US Bitcoin spot ETF experienced a net outflow of $240.14 million.
Cryptocurrency analyst Trader T has detected that US Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $240.14 million yesterday, primarily due to net outflows from multiple ETFs including BlackRock, Fidelity, and Bitwise, while Valkyrie's ETF saw a small net inflow.
GateNews3m ago
Construction Begins on Quantum Facility Capable of Breaking Bitcoin
The quantum computing race is edging closer to a commercially viable milestone, with PsiQuantum revealing progress toward a facility that could house a million qubits. The company, which has tied its plans to a collaboration with Nvidia, says the ambitious Chicago site will rely on advanced error-to
CryptoBreaking30m ago
Bitcoin mining companies have sold over 15,000 BTC since October last year, indicating a shift in industry holding strategies.
Since October last year, publicly listed Bitcoin mining companies have sold over 15,000 BTC, indicating a shift from holding strategies to selling. Many companies are participating in the sell-off, profit margins are narrowing, and the industry faces severe challenges. MARA Holdings has attracted attention for its flexible trading strategy, holding over 53,000 BTC.
GateNews41m ago
Indiana Breaks Ground as First US State Approving Bitcoin Investment in Government Retirement Accounts
Indiana becomes the first U.S. state to allow bitcoin and crypto investments in public retirement plans, a bullish policy shift that expands digital asset adoption while protecting payments, mining, custody, and blockchain activity statewide.
Indiana Leads US States After Law Opens Public
Coinpedia57m ago
XRP Holds $1.40 as Bitcoin Rally and ETF Inflows Lift Crypto Market
Key Insights
XRP maintained support above $1.40 as the broader market rebounded, while strong inflows into Bitcoin ETFs helped restore trading confidence.
Bitcoin surged beyond $74,000 alongside gains in major altcoins, lifting total crypto market value close to $2.45 trillion in one
CryptoFrontNews59m ago
Glassnode: Bitcoin selling pressure has eased, but institutional demand remains in the testing phase
PANews March 6 News, Glassnode posted on X platform analyzing that the outflow trend of Bitcoin spot ETF funds has stabilized. The 14-day net flow trend has turned upward, indicating that as Bitcoin breaks through $70,000, selling pressure is easing. Institutional demand remains in a tentative stage, but early signs of reaccumulation are beginning to appear.
GateNews1h ago
