Federal Reserve's 2026 First Meeting Approaching: Bitcoin Price Forecast - $95,000 Threshold Becomes a Bull-Bear Divide

January 16 News, Bitcoin experienced a slight correction after a clear weekly increase, with the current price still stable above $95,000. Over the past 24 hours, the overall cryptocurrency market has retreated by approximately 1.18%, digesting the previous weekly gain of about 4%. Market consensus generally believes that the short-term correction mainly stems from profit-taking and ongoing uncertainty regarding the future of U.S. cryptocurrency regulation.

Meanwhile, key macro variables are approaching. The Federal Reserve's first policy meeting of 2026 will be held from January 27 to 28, marking the start of eight regular meetings this year and being viewed as an important window to judge the year's monetary policy direction. Market participants are closely watching the signals released from the meeting to assess the subsequent performance of risk assets.

According to publicly available information, the Federal Open Market Committee will focus on discussing the latest inflation and employment data and evaluate whether adjustments to the current monetary policy stance are necessary. Currently, the federal funds rate is maintained in the range of 3.50% to 3.75%, at a relatively low level in recent years. Previously, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three consecutive times in December 2025, which has increased market expectations for a continued accommodative policy early in 2026. The decision and press conference content announced on January 28 could directly influence Bitcoin's price movement.

On the capital side, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of about $100 million on January 15, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of net capital inflow. However, from the overall market structure, some assets' upward momentum is slowing, indicating that investors are beginning to exercise caution ahead of key macro events.

From a technical perspective, as of press time, Bitcoin is approximately $95,674, with the $97,500 level forming a key resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 57, in a neutral zone, with no obvious overbought or oversold signals. The MACD indicator remains positive, suggesting the short-term trend is still oscillating upward, but the declining histogram indicates downward pressure that warrants attention.

If Bitcoin effectively breaks through $97,500 in the future, the market may challenge the $100,000 psychological level again; if the correction deepens, the $95,000 and $92,000 regions will become critical support levels. Overall, before the Federal Reserve's policy becomes clearer, Bitcoin is likely to remain in a high-level oscillation pattern, with macro expectations still being the core factor influencing its trend.