Berachain's surge hides hidden risks: BERA weekly increase exceeds 60%, and the refund deadline for Nova on February 6th becomes a key risk point

January 19 News, Berachain (BERA) has recently experienced a rapid surge in the crypto market, with both price and attention rising simultaneously. Data shows that BERA increased by approximately 15% in the past 24 hours, with a cumulative gain of over 60% in the past week, making it one of the most prominent emerging assets in the DeFi sector. A large influx of capital has sparked market discussions.

The current rally can be traced back to January 14. On that day, Berachain announced a new model called “Bera Builds Businesses” in its annual update, which involves internal incubation, mergers and acquisitions, or deep cooperation with a few core enterprises to generate continuous cash flow for the BERA token. This model is seen as an important signal of the Berachain Foundation’s transition from purely infrastructure to a “sustainable income blockchain,” and it has directly ignited market sentiment.

However, beyond positive narratives, potential risks should not be overlooked. On-chain data shows that since early 2025, Berachain’s total value locked (TVL) has sharply declined from about $3 billion to less than $200 million, reflecting weak ecosystem capital stickiness. Meanwhile, Berachain’s arrangements to provide downside protection for some institutional investors have also sparked discussions about its fairness and governance structure.

More attention is being paid to the refund terms related to the Nova fund under Brevan Howard, with a deadline of February 6, 2026. As this date approaches, some investors are beginning to question whether the recent rise is influenced by a “time window” factor. Once the refund mechanism is triggered, short-term selling pressure could significantly increase.

From a technical perspective, although BERA has recently rebounded strongly, it remains nearly 70% below the all-time high of $3.08 set in early October 2025. The daily chart structure has gradually turned bullish, the relative strength index remains above 60, indicating ongoing momentum, and volume indicators are also rising, showing active buying.

While the upward trend continues, the market is also beginning to consider profit-taking. For investors concerned about Berachain’s prospects, the key point in early February may determine whether BERA continues its rebound or enters a phase of correction.