Gate Research Institute: Market Sentiment Extremely Fearful | Stablecoin Real Payment Share Less Than 0.02%

Cryptocurrency Market Overview

• BTC (-1.69% | Current price 87,655.4 USDT): After weakening at high levels, BTC experienced an accelerated pullback on the 26th, with a low of around $86,100. It then rebounded from oversold levels, but the rebound was limited, and the price remains below medium-term moving averages such as MA30, indicating a generally bearish structure. On the macro and fundamental levels, there are no major negative signals, and ETF and long-term supply-demand dynamics remain intact. In the short term, BTC may oscillate within the 86,000–88,500 USD range to digest selling pressure, with medium-term risks of retesting support after failed rebounds; over a longer cycle, if macro conditions remain stable, Bitcoin is more likely to fluctuate within a high range rather than trend downward unilaterally, building conditions for future market movements.
• ETH (-2.35% | Current price 2,881.78 USDT): After consolidating in the 2,950–3,000 USD range, ETH’s momentum weakened, and on the 26th, amid cooling risk appetite, it broke below the lower boundary of the range, briefly dropping below $2,800. It then rebounded driven by short-term covering and oversold correction. Compared to BTC, ETH’s retracement slope is steeper with greater volatility. In the short term, ETH may oscillate within the 2,780–2,900 USD range to digest selling pressure; if it cannot reclaim above $2,950, caution is advised for potential retests.
• Altcoins: The Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 20, remaining in extreme fear territory. Market sentiment is significantly contracted, and short-term volatility may continue to increase, with prices potentially bottoming out repeatedly.
• Macro: On January 23, the S&P 500 rose 0.033% to 6,915.61 points; the Dow Jones fell 0.58% to 49,098.71 points; the Nasdaq increased 0.28% to 23,501.24 points. As of 11:00 AM (UTC+8) on January 26, spot gold is priced at $5,082.37 per ounce, up 1.92% within 24 hours.

Hot Tokens to Watch

TAIKO TAIKO (+51.16%, Market Cap $50.51 million)

According to Gate data, TAIKO is currently priced at $0.2649, up over 50% in 24 hours. Taiko (TAIKO) is a Layer 2 scaling solution based on Ethereum, utilizing a Type-1 zkEVM zkRollup architecture that is fully compatible with Ethereum, aiming to achieve “Ethereum-native” equivalence while maintaining high decentralization.

The recent surge in TAIKO may be driven by strong buying in the Korean market, combined with ongoing technical upgrades that have fermented recently, leading to a short-term explosion. Taiko recently announced the Shasta protocol upgrade, which reduced block proposal costs by about 22 times and proof generation costs by about 8 times, significantly enhancing its economic competitiveness as a ZK L2. Meanwhile, the Korean crypto market sentiment remains hot, and altcoins often experience such rapid surges during short-term rotations.

AUCTION BounceAuction (+32.19%, Market Cap $47.2 million)

According to Gate data, AUCTION is currently priced at $6.72, up over 30% in 24 hours. BounceAuction (AUCTION) is a decentralized auction platform supporting multiple auction mechanisms, allowing users to create and participate in auctions for tokens, NFTs, or other digital assets on the blockchain.

There are no specific explosive news for AUCTION this time; the price increase is mainly due to a sharp increase in trading volume and technical breakout, creating a short-term FOMO effect. Trading volume over the past 24 hours has significantly increased compared to the previous day, with large buy orders or algorithmic trading pushing the price higher on major exchanges. Additionally, after a long-term low, AUCTION broke through a key resistance level, forming a strong rebound pattern.

BOB BOB (+17.65%, Market Cap $23.26 million)

According to Gate data, BOB is currently priced at $0.01044, up over 15% in 24 hours. Build on Bitcoin (BOB) aims to serve as an entry point for Bitcoin DeFi, combining Bitcoin’s security with Ethereum’s flexibility to build a platform for Bitcoin liquidity, applications, and institutional funds.

The recent price increase of BOB may be mainly driven by staking-related supply constraints and technical exhaustion rebounds, creating short-term upward momentum. Increased staking activity has led to a relative tightening of circulating supply, forming a rebound basis at long-term lows. This alleviates technical exhaustion after steep declines and has attracted some investors to re-enter.

Alpha Insights

SocialFi Bubble Burst, Social Tokens Drop Over 90%

In early 2026, the SocialFi sector experienced a brutal cleansing: most platforms were either abandoned, quietly acquired, or turned into functionless shells. Typical social tokens like FRIEND, DEGEN, CYBER, RLY, DESO, etc., saw prices plummet 90%–99%. The boom built on massive VC funding, airdrops, and speculative narratives suddenly collapsed. Farcaster’s acquisition by Neynar is a typical case. Once valued at nearly $200 million and with nearly $200 million in funding, the decentralized social protocol’s founders chose to exit, with Merkle Manufactory returning $180 million to investors, and Neynar taking over to maintain the protocol but abandoning grand social ambitions, shifting focus to developer tools.

This orderly and textbook-style exit highlights the core pain points of SocialFi: user growth heavily relies on subsidies and bot farming; once incentives dry up, genuine communities quickly evaporate, leaving only speculative capital and short-term flippers. Essentially, this marks the end of the Crypto social narrative bubble. Over the past few years, many projects claimed to be “decentralized Twitter” or “ownership of user data,” but have failed to escape the network effects and user habits of centralized platforms. Truly sticky social behaviors are hard to develop amid high gas fees, wallet barriers, and fragmented experiences.

Bitcoin Payments in Las Vegas Moving Toward Offline Normalization, Reshaping Payment Costs

As cryptocurrencies become mainstream, more offline merchants in Las Vegas are accepting BTC payments, including chain brands like Steak ’n Shake, juice bars, medical institutions, and small to medium-sized merchants. For merchants, BTC’s appeal is not just as a “new tech label,” but because it can attract new customer groups, especially young users and high-frequency tourists who prefer crypto assets, making “accepting BTC” a marketing and differentiation tool.

More importantly, the cost structure is changing. Reports indicate that Square, a payment company, opened a feature last November allowing about 4 million US merchants to accept BTC payments fee-free before 2026, avoiding the traditional 2.5%–3.5% credit card fees. For offline merchants with limited profit margins, this is a real upgrade in payment tools. As crypto payments gradually improve in compliance and user experience, they are moving from niche experiments to scalable mainstream payment options.

Stablecoin Settlement Volume Is Large but Actual Payments Are Small, Less Than 0.02% of Real Payments

According to joint research by McKinsey and Artemis Analytics, last year stablecoins settled on-chain transactions worth up to $35 trillion, but only about 1% of that involved real-world payments. The report estimates that actual stablecoin payments amount to approximately $380 billion, mainly in B2B settlements ($226 billion), cross-border payroll and remittances ($90 billion), and capital market settlements ($8 billion). This shows that stablecoins have found clear use cases in enterprise, cross-border, and settlement scenarios, but are still far from everyday consumer payments.

Furthermore, most stablecoin transactions currently stem from crypto exchange matching, internal transfers, or protocol-layer operations, rather than real goods and services payments. In the global payments market exceeding $2 quadrillion, stablecoin real payments account for less than 0.02%. This indicates that the core value of stablecoins at this stage is not replacing bank cards or cash but serving as a more efficient settlement and cross-border transfer tool. For industry evolution, to truly break into the mainstream, stablecoin payments depend not just on on-chain volume but also on compliance integration, merchant networks, and user experience.

**References:** - Gate, [https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT](https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT) - Farside Investors, [https://farside.co.uk/btc/](https://farside.co.uk/btc/) - Gate, [https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT](https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT) - Farside Investors, [https://farside.co.uk/eth/](https://farside.co.uk/eth/) - Gate, [https://www.gate.com/crypto-market-data](https://www.gate.com/crypto-market-data) - Investing, [https://investing.com/indices/usa-indices](https://investing.com/indices/usa-indices) - Investing, [https://investing.com/currencies/xau-usd](https://investing.com/currencies/xau-usd) - CoinGecko, [https://www.coingecko.com/en/cryptocurrency-heatmap](https://www.coingecko.com/en/cryptocurrency-heatmap) - CoinDesk, [https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/01/23/stablecoins-moved-usd35-trillion-last-year-but-only-1-of-it-was-for-real-world-payments](https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/01/23/stablecoins-moved-usd35-trillion-last-year-but-only-1-of-it-was-for-real-world-payments) - FOX5, [https://www.fox5vegas.com/2026/01/23/las-vegas-businesses-accept-bitcoin-payments-cryptocurrency-gains-mainstream-adoption](https://www.fox5vegas.com/2026/01/23/las-vegas-businesses-accept-bitcoin-payments-cryptocurrency-gains-mainstream-adoption)
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