This is why the "Uptober" moment for Bitcoin could actually start in February.

Bitcoin (BTC) only recorded a modest 2.2% growth last month, but February could usher in a new positive phase. According to statistics since 2016, the week ending on February 21st typically yields the highest median returns, at 8.4%, with a probability of Bitcoin closing higher reaching up to 60%.

Seasonal Advantage of February and Its Impact on BTC

Economist Timothy Peterson from Network Economist states that February has always been one of the most stable growth months for Bitcoin, even outperforming the famous “Uptober” effect in Q4. According to Peterson, the main reason stems from macroeconomic factors rather than specific cryptocurrency market conditions.

Mid-February is when companies release their annual financial reports and forecast future business prospects, which are often optimistic. This boosts risk-taking investment sentiment, and part of the capital flow shifts into Bitcoin. Peterson emphasizes:

“The period from February 7-21 often records median returns of up to 7% per week!”

He also notes that the first three weeks of February play a crucial role in years of market correction. Bitcoin increased by 4% at the beginning of 2018, decreased by 3% in 2022, and fell by 5% in 2025—all years ending with prices lower than at the start of the year.

In the context of sustained high market volatility but showing signs of cooling down, Peterson believes Bitcoin is fully capable of a strong recovery if macro stress indicators like the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continue to decline.

Bitcoin Price Outlook for 2026 Remains Above $200,000

Bitcoin researcher Sminston With maintains an optimistic view of BTC’s long-term growth potential. Based on the Bitcoin Decay Channel model, With predicts that the peak price of Bitcoin in 2026 will be between $210,000 and $300,000. He states that although this model does not specify exact timing, its price ranges have proven reliable in the past.

This long-term perspective is further supported by momentum data. Sina, author of the Bitcoin Intelligence Report, states that Bitcoin’s momentum has shifted to positive despite recent sharp corrections.

Sina believes that accumulation since early January has helped maintain the overall cash flow structure. The recent sell-off coincided with the decline of the Nasdaq index after US tariff tensions re-emerged, indicating this is a timely reaction rather than an intrinsic sign of Bitcoin’s weakness.

XWIN Research also agrees that Bitcoin is still in an accumulation phase and has not shown a clear downward trend.

Real Market Capitalization of Bitcoin | Source: CryptoQuant Although rising long-term bond yields may limit valuation expansion, the Realized Cap index continues to increase, indicating that spot capital flow is still entering the system.

Mr. Giáo