Gate Research Institute: Short-term recovery and rebound in the crypto market | Polygon leads with x402 smart agent payment transaction volume

Cryptocurrency Asset Overview

BTC (+0.85% | Current Price 89,342 USDT)

BTC has shown a volatile correction trend over the past day, with prices oscillating within the $88,800–$89,800 range. The rebound after the sharp decline on the 26th continues, but selling pressure remains above. The moving average system has shifted from bearish to bullish, with MA5, MA10, and MA30 forming a bullish alignment, and the current price staying above these three moving averages, indicating a short-term bullish trend that is still in the recovery phase. MACD is above the zero line and maintains a golden cross, with the red bars gradually enlarging, suggesting short-term bullish momentum is dominant. Overall, if BTC can hold steady above $89,000 and volume increases to break through $90,000, it may further challenge the previous high near $91,200; conversely, if it falls back below the support zone of $88,800–$88,400, caution is needed for a potential reversal and testing the $87,000 level.

ETH (+2.75% | Current Price 3,013 USDT)

ETH experienced a rally followed by a pullback over the past day, entering a high-level consolidation phase. Prices repeatedly hover around the $3,000 mark, with short-term volatility more sensitive than BTC. The moving average system shows a clear strengthening structure, with MA5 crossing above MA10 and both turning upward simultaneously, and MA30 also beginning to rise, indicating a shift from correction to a bullish bias, though resistance remains near previous highs. MACD is above the zero line and maintains a golden cross, with red bars expanding but at a slowing rate, indicating bullish momentum is still favorable but with some cooling in buying enthusiasm. Overall, if ETH can defend the $3,000 support and push above the $3,050–$3,070 zone, it could open further upside; if it drops below $2,990–$2,950, attention should be paid to the support around $2,900.

GT (+1.01% | Current Price 9.96 USDT)

GT has shown relatively strong performance over the past day. Prices recovered from around $9.60 and reached a high of $10.07 before a slight pullback, entering a consolidation at high levels. The volatility remains lower than mainstream coins. The moving averages have shifted from weak to strong, with MA5 and MA10 turning upward and approaching each other, with prices trading above them. Meanwhile, MA30 is below and beginning to flatten, indicating medium-term resistance easing and a correctional structure. MACD oscillates near the zero line and maintains a golden cross, with red bars gradually rising, suggesting short-term bullish momentum is dominant but watch for potential exhaustion at high levels. Overall, if GT can stabilize and hold within the $10.00–$10.07 range, it may continue its recovery and test higher resistance; if it falls below $9.90, attention should be paid to the support zone of $9.70–$9.60.

Token Daily Gains and Losses

Over the past 24 hours, the overall crypto market has experienced a recovery rally, with widespread gains. Capital mainly flows back into core assets and leading mainstream coins. SOL and similar tokens also strengthened; stablecoins remain relatively flat, with minor fluctuations reflecting short-term capital shifts between risk assets and cash equivalents.

In terms of sentiment indicators, the fear and greed index is currently at 29, in the “fear” zone, but has rebounded from extreme fear levels seen last week and last month, indicating a marginal recovery in risk appetite. However, this level is still significantly below the year’s high of 61, suggesting the market has not entered a full bullish phase. Overall, the current situation resembles a technical rebound and portfolio rebalancing after panic, with short-term movements likely to follow a pattern of “recovery rally—oscillation,” and the speed and sustainability of capital inflows remain to be observed.

PIPPIN Pippin (+63.83%, Circulating Market Cap $494 million)

According to Gate data, PIPPIN is currently priced at $0.49885, up approximately 63.83% in 24 hours. Pippin is an SVG unicorn image generated based on ChatGPT-4o’s latest LLM benchmark. The project was created by Yohei Nakajima and is known for its build-in-public style and practices related to “AI for VC,” having sparked widespread discussion when open-sourcing BabyAGI in March 2023 (an autonomous agent paradigm centered on task planning loops).

The rapid surge of PIPPIN in this round is more likely driven by a resonance of capital and technical factors rather than fundamental news: from the daily chart, the price has clearly broken above MA5/10/30, experienced sideways consolidation after an initial rally, and recently tested the upper boundary of the range. Coupled with increased trading volume, this can easily trigger chasing buying and short covering, accelerating the upward movement.

BNKR BankrCoin (+60.34%, Circulating Market Cap $37 million)

According to Gate data, BNKR is currently priced at $0.0003765, up 60.34% in 24 hours. BankrCoin is a token narrative derived from the BankrBot ecosystem, with core selling points focusing on transforming “AI intelligent agents + multi-chain DeFi infrastructure + automated trading/operations” into callable toolchains.

The significant rise of BNKR is likely due to “product updates generating topical heat + capital chasing the smart agent narrative,” creating a sentiment resonance. On one hand, Bankr-related tweets have released information about “plugin launches, direct installation, and expandability to trading and automation,” which can trigger developer and speculative capital attention. On the other hand, community-shared content mentions that clawdbot has generated high transaction fees in a short period, along with screenshots of personal trading returns, reinforcing market expectations of “increased on-chain activity and accelerated trading behavior,” thus attracting FOMO capital inflows.

XRD Radix (+52.68%, Circulating Market Cap $38.92 million)

According to Gate data, XRD is currently priced at $0.002988, up about 52.68% in 24 hours. XRD is a public chain project centered on “asset-first” and composable DeFi narratives, emphasizing the secure expression of native assets and transaction semantics, with ongoing iterations on wallet and application interaction experiences.

The recent rapid rise of XRD reflects more the “release of product and roadmap news” that boosts sentiment and capital inflows. On one hand, the wallet side has promoted “human-readable transactions, full review of asset flows and actions before signing,” which has gained attention amid recent frequent on-chain security incidents, raising user expectations for interaction safety and asset control. On the other hand, updates such as the public release of Hyperscale testnet, ecosystem season review, and governance mechanism advancement have strengthened market imagination for network performance deployment and ecosystem development into the next phase, driving short-term trading activity.

Hotspot Analysis

Tether Launches Compliant Stablecoin USAT, Dual-Track Strategy for Regulation and Channel Expansion

Tether announced the official launch of USAT, a stablecoin regulated by federal authorities and backed 1:1 by USD, designed according to the “GENIUS Act” federal stablecoin framework. The product is issued by Anchorage Digital Bank, with Bo Hines as the Chief Executive Officer of USAT, and Cantor Fitzgerald designated as the reserve custodian and preferred Tier 1 dealer. USAT’s positioning leans toward “stablecoin infrastructure for domestic payments and compliant channels,” while USDT will continue to operate as the core product line for global scenarios—essentially splitting “regulated scenarios” and “global circulation scenarios” into two tracks: one serving stricter access and custody requirements, the other maintaining existing network effects and broad availability.

From a business logic perspective, Tether’s need for a “framework within stablecoins” is not to replace USDT but to incorporate institutions, payments, and stricter clearing/custody systems through a compliant shell: on one hand, Tether disclosed earning about $15 billion in profit in 2025, reflecting its ability to generate interest from high-quality reserve assets; on the other hand, its flagship USDT had a market cap of approximately $187 billion in early January 2026, with daily trading volume reportedly surpassing the combined total of competitors, indicating that “global network effects” remain a moat. Meanwhile, Tether’s reserve structure and asset allocation are evolving toward a “quasi-financial group,” holding not only cash equivalents and bonds but also Bitcoin and gold, and expanding investments into data infrastructure, resources, and real industries. Placing Cantor Fitzgerald as reserve custodian and Tier 1 dealer further strengthens its connection with traditional market-making and custody systems—offering external narratives of compliance and transparency, while internally providing channels and liquidity efficiency reinsurance.

Kite Mainnet Roadmap Focuses on Native Trust and Call-Based Payments for Intelligent Agents

Kite released its mainnet roadmap, with the core narrative being to fill three gaps for “task-executing intelligent agents”: trusted identity and authorization, programmable payments and settlements, and end-to-end auditable responsibility chains. The roadmap emphasizes native compatibility with x402, making “pay-per-call + standardized payment intents + settlement and reconciliation” protocol-level capabilities, enabling intelligent agents to complete payments and credential deposits as easily as initiating an HTTP request when calling APIs, purchasing data/services, or completing deliveries. The system capabilities are divided into six independent pillars: KitePass identity anchoring and programmable governance, native settlement and Facilitator components for stablecoins, zero-cost RPC/documentation/observability tools, external verifiers and VaaS network operation and gradual decentralization, AgenticFi components for financial activities of agents, and growth engines driven by incentives and ecosystem events.

In terms of delivery pace, Kite plans a “gradual mainnet rollout,” phased over 1–2 years, with a clear priority on balancing security, auditability, and ecosystem expansion: first establishing the trust and payment closed loop, then gradually opening up to verifiers and more complex financial and cross-chain modules. This approach aims to build a sustainable settlement and governance foundation for the “intelligent agent economy,” rather than merely pursuing short-term TPS or application count. On the funding side, the project has disclosed approximately $33 million in total funding, with one round led by PayPal Ventures and General Catalyst. This combination of capital and strategic partners usually indicates a focus beyond the chain itself, emphasizing “protocol standards (x402) + payment infrastructure + developer ecosystem” collaboration.

Polygon Leads x402 Intelligent Agent Payment Volume, Base Continues Weak for 8 Days

According to Artemis data, in the x402 intelligent agent payment (agentic payment) dimension, Polygon’s daily transaction volume has been higher than Base for the eighth consecutive day. Analyzing the on-chain transaction structure over the past three months shows: early dominance by Base, which contributed most of the volume and gradually declined after reaching a high; mid-term, Solana’s share increased steadily, creating a “Base weakening, Solana strengthening” structural rebalancing; recently, Polygon’s incremental volume has become more prominent, overtaking Base and maintaining consecutive wins.

This lead appears more as a result of “payment routing and application migration” rather than mere market fluctuation: as pay-per-call billing becomes the default paradigm, developers and aggregators focus more on transaction costs, confirmation experience, failure/retry rates, and integration efficiency with payment intent standards; if a chain demonstrates superior settlement stability, cost predictability, or ecosystem incentives, it can quickly attract marginal traffic in high-frequency, small-value, automated intelligent agent payment scenarios. If Polygon can continue converting advantages into more stable SDK/payment components and merchant adoption, its lead could further expand; if genuine payment demand is lacking, short-term surges may revert to event-driven fluctuations.

References:

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT
• Farside Investors, https://farside.co.uk/btc/
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT
• Farside Investors, https://farside.co.uk/eth/
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/crypto-market-data
• Investing, https://investing.com/indices/usa-indices
• Investing, https://investing.com/currencies/xau-usd
• CoinGecko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/cryptocurrency-heatmap
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/announcements/article/48980
• X, https://x.com/Cointelegraph/status/2016292864989208640?s=20
• X, https://x.com/GoKiteAI/status/2016159368048521441?s=20

Disclaimer Investing in cryptocurrencies involves high risk. Users are advised to conduct independent research and fully understand the nature of the assets and products before making any investment decisions. Gate is not responsible for any losses or damages resulting from such investment decisions.